Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Geoffrey Williams, Assistant Professor at Transylvania University.
Better Care Reconciliation Act and Coverage Loss, Elevated Mortality Rates for Wisconsin
Estimated elevated mortality levels for the Senate bill is 26,500 for 2026, given the reduction of coverage by 22 million. CAP estimates by the state level indicate Wisconsin coverage of nonelderly will decrease by 394,100. This implies Wisconsin mortality levels will be up by about 475. (For context, 2015 Wisconsin total deaths was 51,251, so 475 constitutes a nearly 1% increase on 2015 deaths…)
Time to update this post to read: “Troubled Kentucky Man Goes on 50 State Killing Spree”. (Although KY excess mortality is only 279 in 2026, so fewer implied deaths than for Speaker Ryan’s AHCA.)
Why Drop the ACA?
A common talking point is that the ACA is imploding, or that it’s unpopular. It is useful to consult actual data and expert opinion when listening to such arguments.
Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017 Scored
Or, the GOP plan to eliminate the surplus population
How to remove the trend from economic variables
I have an article at voxeu discussing my recent research on how you should (and shouldn’t) try to do this.
Guest Contribution: “The Sugar Swamp”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on June 22nd in Project Syndicate.
Guest Contribution: “Time-varying Models for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Adjunct Professor of Economics, University Paris Nanterre, France). The views expressed here are those solely of the author.
Double Time to Trade War?
From Politico’s Morning Trade:
RAPID PACE OF STEEL PROBE DISCONCERTING: Some Democratic lawmakers could soon press the administration over concerns that a potential Trump decision to restrict steel imports to protect national security could be challenged at the World Trade Organization if the Commerce Department does not provide a convincing basis for any action, Morning Trade has learned.
Pangloss in Wisconsin
In search of a “supply side success” after the end of the Kansas experiment, conservative observers turn to Wisconsin. The Manhattan Institute’s Mr. Riedl declares victory:
Wisconsin’s job growth over the past six years has been extraordinarily strong.
When last we met Mr. Riedl, he was explaining why fiscal policy could have no impact on GDP because, well, because. That does not augur well for his abilities an economic analysis, and indeed we can easily poke holes into the argument that Wisconsin’s doing just great!
Fed balance-sheet reduction not scaring anyone
Today the Federal Reserve announced that it is increasing its target for the fed funds rate to a new range of 1 to 1.25%, a development that surprised no one. But something that was not heralded in advance was the announcement that the Fed intends to “begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.” The Fed spelled out in detail exactly what that will entail. Sometime later this year, the Fed will begin limiting the amount of maturing Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities that it reinvests, initially bringing its balance sheet down by $10 billion each month as its holdings are redeemed. Those amounts will gradually increase each month until after a year balance-sheet reduction reaches a pace of $50 billion per month. That compares with a net increase of $100B/month on the way up during QE1. Given current Fed security holdings of $4.2 trillion, this would reduce the Fed’s security holdings by about 14% per year once it gets into full swing.
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