Many analysts had anticipated that a dramatic drop in oil prices such as we’ve seen since the summer of 2014 could provide a big stimulus to the economy of a net oil importer like the United States. That doesn’t seem to be what we’ve observed in the data.
Continue reading
Data Baking?
Ironman of Political Calculations asserts that my use of Philadelphia Fed coincident indices is misleading, particularly in reference to Kansas’s performance is my attempt to overstate the poor performance of that state’s economy. He argues that one should use a comprehensive measure, like gross domestic product — so without further ado, let’s compare Kansas relative performance using both measures.
Revised Coincident Indices for the Midwest: Wisconsin at the Back of the Pack!
Again.
The Financial Regulatory Policies of Senator Sanders…Again
The ironies abound
Guest Contribution: “Stagnant incomes of white workers do not explain Trump”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
2016 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge winner
Congratulations to Jackiegee, winner of the 2016 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge. None of our entrants correctly picked the tournament winner to be Villanova, but Jackie (like a number of others of you) thought it would be UNC, and came within half a second of being right! For fans of Michigan State, West Virginia, and others, better luck next year!
Wisconsin’s Dependence on Exports
On the eve of the primary votes in Wisconsin, where protectionists are set to make some inroads, it’s of interest to consider the state’s reliance on exports — including those to China (a target of both Senator Sanders and Mr. Trump) and Mexico [1].
Productivity gains in U.S. shale oil
Horizontal fracturing of tight hydrocarbon-bearing formations was responsible for a phenomenal resurgence in U.S. oil production, which rose more than 4 million barrels per day from 2010 levels before peaking in April of last year.
Continue reading
What Is “Solid Economic Reasoning”?
Writing in The Nation, Robert Pollin asserts:
All of [Bernie Sanders’s] major proposals are grounded in solid economic reasoning and evidence.
US-China Trade Policies: the Nuclear — and Near-nuclear — Options
Substantial attention has been devoted to the disasterous effects of implementing a Donald Trump agenda of imposing 45% tariffs on imports of goods from China. To gain some perspective, consider the implications for prices of goods imported from China if such a tariff were imposed (and a large country assumption used, so that only half of the tariff increase manifested in increased prices).
Figure 1: Price of Chinese commodity imports, 2003M12=100, with 2016M03 values at 2016M02 values (bold blue), and a 22.5% higher price level as of 2017M02 assuming the half of incidence falls on the US (red). Light green shaded area denotes projection period. Vertical axis is logarithmic. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.
Obviously, drop the large country assumption, and the resulting price increase can be up to 45%.