As a new year gets under way [Nobel Laureate Robert] Shiller fears that advanced economies could be on the cusp of another stock market and property bubble that could end in tears….
“I’ve tried to inquire why we are having these booms right now at a time of so-called secular stagnation with low interest rates, and arrived at the thought that low interest rates are promoting these bubbles.”
Republican Presidential Front-Runner Trump on Trade Policy
From the NYT:
Donald J. Trump said he would favor a 45 percent tariff on Chinese exports to the United States, proposing the idea during a wide-ranging meeting with members of the editorial board of The New York Times.
What’s the CNY Doing?
As the CNY depreciates, just a quick note for perspective.
Politico on the 2016 Economic Outlook
Provocatively titled “Could the Economy Tank in 2016?”:
Some International Finance at ASSA
Full Allied Social Sciences Association program, with links to some papers, here.
What Happened in Wisconsin in January 2011?
I don’t think it’s structural change associated with the recession.
The Year in Review, 2015: The Ascent of the Blowhard
and yet more fantastical pseudo public policy analysis
Wisconsin Employment Falls in November, Continues to Lag
Governor Walker blames the workers.
Managing the Fed’s balance sheet
Last week I discussed the tools that the Federal Reserve will be using to raise short-term interest rates as we enter the next phase of U.S. monetary policy. In brief, the Fed plans to use interest on reserves and reverse repurchase agreements as an offer to borrow back Federal Reserve deposits at an annual rate between 25 and 50 basis points (0.25% to 0.50% interest per year). That offer from the Fed puts an effective floor under the fed funds rate, which is the rate at which institutions would lend these funds overnight to other banks. When the Fed raises its offering rate, the fed funds rate should go up with it. Today I look at the implications of these new procedures for the Fed’s balance sheet.
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Guest Contribution: “Emerging Markets Facing Higher U.S. Interest Rates: Smooth Sailing or Perfect Storm?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Carlos Arteta, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Marc Stocker, and Lei Sandy Ye, all of the World Bank. This blog represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent World Bank Group views or policy.