Charles Payne joins the recession camp.
Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)
Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50.
UMich Sentiment Catching Up with the (Good Economic) News?
From TradingEconomics on 10/25:
Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3 vs. 34.2).
Prediction Markets, FWIW
Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls.
“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch
A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Private NFP Nowcast
Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October.
Son of ShadowStats: “Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy”
Heritage Foundation EJ Antoni channels ShadowStats:
“Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy…” Thang [sic] you,
@mises , for highlighting a recent paper @profstonge and I wrote that explains how inflation has been greatly underestimated – read the article by @RonPaul here:
https://t.co/cVroe5QwCT
Instantaneous Inflation: PCE, Market Based PCE, HICP, CPI, and Chained CPI
With PCE deflators released today: