Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Lei Sandy Ye, all of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
Implied Output Response to Demand Side Shifts in the Friedman Scenario under Local to Potential Assumptions
What does a conventional (estimated) macroeconometric model imply for a sustained 7.7% increase in government consumption and investment as a share of GDP in terms of output.
Guest Contribution: “Argentina: A Big Change with Problematic Initial Conditions”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Maria Muniagurria, faculty member in Economics at the University of Wisconsin – Madison.
A little over two months ago, Mauricio Macri began his tenure as president after his coalition of center-right parties prevailed over the ruling party’s candidate by a small margin.
Stock prices and oil prices
Ben Bernanke weighs in on why stock prices and oil prices have been moving together recently.
What Is the Assumed Output Gap in the Friedman Projections?
Or, “Is current output really 18% below potential output?”
Chinese Foreign Currency External Debt
One constraint on devaluation as a means of stimulating the economy comes from the balance sheet. When there is a big stock of external debt denominated in foreign currency, a devaluation increases the amount of debt evaluated in domestic currency terms, potentially driving some firms into insolvency. How does China look in these terms?
Trade Policy Parallels
Surely, it’s occurred to others, but I find the following comparison of trade policy stances quite remarkable.
The Counter-cyclical Stabilization Policies of the Democratic Presidential Candidates
In this post, I assess how the candidates would implement macroeconomic stabilization policy, given the big reform packages proposed by the candidates, in particular those by Senator Sanders, are highly unlikely to be passed by a fully or partly Republican Congress. On the other hand, a downturn in the next four years is much more plausible; hence, knowing the candidates’ views on macro stabilization policy is arguably more relevant.
Guest Contribution: “Financial Regulatory Transparency and Sovereign Borrowing Costs”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Mark Copelovitch (University of Wisconsin – Madison), Christopher Gandrud (City University of London), and Mark Hallerberg (Hertie School of Governance, Berlin).
Recession probabilities
Our GDP-based recession indicator index is now available from FRED, the database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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