I hear that Bannon is pushing Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni for BLS Commissioner.
Manufacturing on the Ropes?
Manufacturing employment, hours, capacity utilization down since March 2025 (pre-“Liberation Day”); manufacturing production (Fed index) flat since March.
CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession Watch
Bill McBride’s assessment here.
Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives:
How Are Wisconsin Exports, Manufacturing Doing under Trump Trade War 2.0?
Discussed the employment numbers on WPR this morning. One question came up, which inspired this post – how’s Wisconsin doing, tradewise, given the states’ trade/manufacturing dependence.
Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26
UW Now Live: “Trumponomics” and the state of the U.S. economy” [updated 8/9 w/recording]
EPU and EPU-Trade Policy Uncertainty Measured
Through 8/3:
Trump’s Willing Enabler
From the NYT:
Business Cycle Indicators – A Turning Point?
Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second of alternative indicators (recalling all the most recent data will be revised):