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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Causes and consequences of the oil price decline of 2014-2015

At the NBER Annual Conference on Macroeconomics in Cambridge last week I participated with Steven Kamin of the Federal Reserve Board and Steven Strongin of Goldman Sachs in a discussion on commodity prices. You can watch a video of our discussion at the NBER web site.

This entry was posted on April 24, 2016 by James_Hamilton.

Charles Wyplosz on the Eurozone Crises

“A Crisis that Should Not Have Happened”

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This entry was posted on April 22, 2016 by Menzie Chinn.

“Kansas loses patience with Gov. Brownback’s tax cuts”

The experiment continues…

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This entry was posted on April 19, 2016 by Menzie Chinn.

Thinking about The Great Leap Forward

When Technocrats Are Pushed Aside

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This entry was posted on April 18, 2016 by Menzie Chinn.

A financial hockey stick

Yesterday I was at the 31st annual NBER conference on macroeconomics (along with fellow blogger Mark Thoma). Among the many interesting contributions was development of an extended data set on 25 different indicators for 17 advanced economies going back to 1870 by Jorda, Schularick and Taylor (2016).
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This entry was posted on April 17, 2016 by James_Hamilton.

Guest Contribution: “The Threat to US Global Leadership”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This is an extended version of a column that appeared in Project Syndicate.


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This entry was posted on April 15, 2016 by Menzie Chinn.

Heckuva a Lot of Uncertainty There

The sheer audacity (and vagueness) of Senator Sanders’ economic program means that there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding impacts: wholesale replacement of ACA, rapid increases in marginal tax rates, rapidly escalating infrastructure spending, among others. Here’s CRFB’s estimate of the impact on debt-to-GDP.

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This entry was posted on April 14, 2016 by Menzie Chinn.

Rich States, Poor States, 2016 Is Out

Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore and Jonathan Williams strike again in this year’s installment of RSPS. According to their report, Utah’s prospects are the best, and Wisconsin’s outlook has risen to #9. Should the residents of these states rejoice?

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This entry was posted on April 13, 2016 by Menzie Chinn.

“Global Growth: Too Slow for Too Long”

That is the title of a post by Maury Obstfeld, Chief Economist at the IMF, on the occasion of the release of the April 2016 World Economic Outlook forecasts.

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This entry was posted on April 12, 2016 by Menzie Chinn.

US Financial Openness under a President Trump

Mr. Trump has proposed blocking remittances of illegally earned wages to Mexico as a means of inducing Mexico to pay for a border wall. What does this imply for financial openness?

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This entry was posted on April 12, 2016 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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