Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution authored by Laura Alfaro (Harvard), Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (U. Maryland) and Vadym Volosovych (Erasmus University Rotterdam). This post is based on “Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, and Global Imbalances” (2014).
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin, and More
The Philadelphia Fed has just released coincident indicators for state economies. No turnaround for Wisconsin — it continues to lag Minnesota and the Nation.
Will Wisconsin Private Employment Be Revised Down?
Preliminary figures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which Governor Walker has previously touted as more accurate than the establishment survey [1], indicate a substantial downward revision in Wisconsin private employment.
Cancer and age
There’s no denying that our bodies deteriorate as we age. But here’s one fact in which those in their golden years may take comfort. If you live long enough, your odds of developing certain cancers decline rather than increase as a function of age.
GDP Prospects
Estimates of monthly GDP indicate a rebound. So too do forecasts.
Guest Contribution: “Forex reserves: why following China won’t work for India”
Today we are fortunate to have a contribution by Joshua Aizenman, Dockson Chair in Economics and International Relations at the University of Southern California. This post was originally published at East Asia Forum.
Peak oil interview
Here’s a link to an interview on peak oil and other topics that I did with RT TV.
Estimated Elevated Mortality Rates Associated with Medicaid Opt-Outs
A number of states have decided to opt out of expanding Medicaid, despite the fact that for the first three years, 100% of the costs of the Medicaid expansion would be covered by the Federal government. This has a number of fiscal, health and mortality implications.
Unemployment dynamics
What accounts for the sharp spike in unemployment during recessions? And why did the unemployment rate recover so slowly after recent recessions? I’ve been looking into these questions with UCSD Ph.D. candidate Hie Joo Ahn, and we’ve just finished a new research paper summarizing some of our findings.
Expansionary Fiscal Policy Is Very Expansionary, during Extreme Recessions
From a paper by Carlos Vegh, (John Hopkins University), Daniel Riera-Crichton (Bates College) and Guillermo Vuletin (Brookings Institution) presented at the USC-JIMF conference “Financial Crisis in the Aftermath of Global Crisis” (described here):