Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. He is currently a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “Are Chinese Capital controls still binding and if so, to what end?”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Yin-Wong Cheung, Professor of International Economics at City University Hong Kong, formerly professor at UCSC, and Risto Herrala, economist at the Bank of Finland.
Use of logarithms in economics
Why do economists always want to take the natural logarithm of everything? Here’s the answer,if you don’t mind looking at a few equations and graphs.
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Ex Post Historical Simulation of a Statistical Model of Anthropogenic Climate Change
…we update the [original statistical model (7)] by estimating it with data through 1998. The selected sample ends just before the recent period of slowed warming. As such, the parameter estimates do not use information about the post-1998 period. Model simulations reflect these pre-1998 parameters and post-1998 observed levels of radiative forcings, SOI, and volcanic sulphates.
Fed Policy and Emerging Market Economy Vulnerabilities
The recent weakness in emerging market currencies, and implementation of the taper, are sure to be topics of discussion at the G-20 meetings in Australia. While the imminent retrenchment in quantitative/credit easing is responsible for some of the currency movements of late, I’m not sure this is the only way to look at recent events; nor do I think we need see a replay of previous episodes of currency crises in response to US monetary tightening.
A Random Thought on the Scientific Method
In response to this post, climate model skeptic Rick Stryker writes (in ALL CAPS no less):
JUST BECAUSE A MODEL DESCRIBES THE EXISTING DATA DOESN’T MEAN THAT IT WILL DESCRIBE DATA THAT HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED
Economic Implications of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Extreme Weather
In my ten years living in Madison, this has been the coldest Winter thus far. Keeping in mind everything is probabilistic, it’s likely that I have anthropogenic climate change to thank for experiencing this event. [1] [2] [3] (Just like one can’t say Hurricane Sandy was directly a result of global climate change, the likelihood of such events rises with global climate change.)
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act at 5
It was five years ago that the ARRA was passed…and thence arose a fierce storm of criticisms, ranging from the idea that the stimulus would occur after the recovery was complete (e.g., Ed Lazear), to the Treasury view (government spending would crowd out completely private spending, e.g., Eugene Fama). Time to take stock. The Council of Economic Advisers has released its last report on the ARRA, and other stimulus measures, discussed in a blogpost by CEA Chair Jason Furman.
Digital transaction security
Bits and bytes can be stolen just like the cash under your mattress.
Estimated Gross State Product for Wisconsin and Minnesota
Ed Hanson argues that 2013 Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2013 will show a Wisconsin renaissance: