If recent trends continue, in a few months there will be $1.2 trillion in Federal Reserve notes (otherwise known as dollar bills) in circulation. Who is holding all these?
2013 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
Despite much bracket-busting, the nation’s best college basketball team seems somehow to have emerged as winner of the 2013 men’s NCAA basketball tournament. Congratulations to Louisville, and congratulations to budwysor, who won the coveted championship of the 2013 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge, in part by picking not only Louisville as winner but also 5 of the last 8 teams standing. Thanks to all the others who participated. And if things didn’t go your way, there’s always next year!
Currency Wars vs. Currency Spillovers
From Steven Englander (Citibank), “Currency war, BoJ Style” (4/7, not online):
Japan is likely to be labeled as a currency warrior by major Asian trading partners. However, the new BoJ policy has been endorsed by the Fed and IMF and is very G7 compliant, so the BoJ has cover for its policy agenda, despite the aggressiveness of its balance sheet expansion and negative implications for JPY.
Is the recovery dying?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the number of Americans with jobs only increased by 88,000 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s one of the weakest months in the last two years. Although it’s clearly a disappointment, I would caution against reading too much into the latest number.
Guest Contribution: “Should We Care about Sticky Prices?”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Yuriy Gorodnichenko (UC Berkeley) and Michael Weber (UC Berkeley). It is based upon their paper entitled “Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence From The Stock Market”.
This Is Not an Oil Spill
Technically speaking. Update, 4/6: Or maybe it is.
The BoJ’s Kuroda Acts
From Reuters:
The death of peak oil
“Peak oil is dead,” Rob Wile declared last week. Colin Sullivan says it has “gone the way of the Flat Earth Society”, writing
Those behind the theory appear to have been dead wrong, at least in terms of when the peak would hit, having not anticipated the rapid shift in technology that led to exploding oil and natural gas production in new plays and areas long since dismissed as dried up.
These comments inspired me to revisit some of the predictions made in 2005 that received a lot of attention at the time, and take a look at what’s actually happened since then.
Wisconsin, and Her Neighbors: Philadelphia Fed Coincident Indices
From the MacIver Institute, “The Free Market Voice of Wisconsin”:
Teaching Mundell-Fleming, Interest Rate Parity, and the LM Curve
Simon Wren-Lewis’s post has sparked vigorous discussion [1] [2] (and rejoinder) of whether the teaching of Mundell-Fleming, omitting uncovered interest parity, to our undergraduate students is defensible. In addition, he wonders whether it makes sense to use an LM curve, given the absence of a stable money demand curve, and the fact that most advanced country central banks target a policy rate. I think these are good questions for teachers, as well as those who provide advice regarding policy measures.