WisPolitics Luncheon on 9/16, 11:30-1pm.
“How Tariffs are Affecting Wisconsin Economy”
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Bloomberg: “Economists Rally Behind Cook, Fed Independence in Open Letter”
Bordo-McCauley: “A wrong Fed could do the dollar in: An open letter to the US Senate”
From the FT today:
Michael D. Bordo is Distinguished Professor of Economics emeritus at Rutgers University, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and Distinguished Visitor at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies. Robert N McCauley is a non-resident senior fellow at Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center and associate of the faculty of history at the University of Oxford.
The Employment Picture — Pre-August Release
JOLTS data indicates the vacancies to unemployed ratio has descended to unity.
The Financial System: Some Graphs
Starting teaching today a course on the financial system. Here are some graphs of the current situation, through August.
Nowcasted “Core GDP” Decelerates
Q2 final sales to private domestic purchasers — arguably a better indicator over time about momentum in the economy in the wake of the tariff-frontrunning — was 1.9% q/q AR. Four days ago, nowcasted final sales for Q3 was 2.4%. Today’s GDPNow release takes that number down to 1.7%, a slowdown from Q2.
It Can’t Happen Here: Inflation Edition
I was thinking about how a completely subservient central bank can destroy price stability, referring to examples from history. From Phillip Cagan’s U.Chicago dissertation:
All Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures Rose in July
And CPI nowcasted to rise in August, too:
Guest Contribution: “Turning Medical Science Back to 1900”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.
Still on the Trade Policy Uncertainty Roller Coaster
The appeals court decision is a win, but we’re still a far way from resolving policy uncertainty: