For the first time in four years, I get to teach a course on the Financial System, which is like a financially focused macro course. But lo and behold, Trump’s actions make me re-focus the course…
In the wake of Trump’s letter re: Lisa Cook:
From WSJ:
That’s Jared Bernstein’s advice, in the wake of Trump’s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here’s the picture up to yesterday before the letter to Cook, using the NY Fed’s (Adrian, Crump and Moench) model:
Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus):
From Newsweek today:
This is the best guarantee that cost pressures from tariffs and mass removals will manifest in wage-price spirals, combined with growth reducing economic policy uncertainty — particularly if the Trump administration does not adhere to Supreme Court rulings on this subject.
Torsten Slok provides this illuminating picture of discretionary spending (y/y), by category.
Mark Zandi states that a third of the country is in recession. Here’re some alternative ways of measuring the weakness in the economy, first by geography, second by indicator.
I was contemplating a hamburger cookout over the Labor Day holiday. Prospects?