At min 0:29 of this clip from FoxBusiness:
Trade Expert EJ Antoni on Tariff Pass-Through
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What Releases Have We Missed? What Will We Miss? And What Will Be the Impact?
Current betting on Kalshi is for a 34.5 day shutdown (5pm CT), taking us to November 3-4. At this rate, of the NBER BCDC key variables, we will miss consumption and personal income, and the August manufacturing and trade industry sales releases, as well as the Q3 advance GDP release. We’ve already missed the employment situation and industrial production releases.
EconoFact: “The U.S. Agricultural Sector Under Stress”
ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECM
I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to 0.71 (based on ADP data). Here’s what I got for forecasts of September and October private NFP as reported by BLS:
Some Business Cycle Observables [updated]
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization [correction: no G.17 release h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński ].
Betting on Shutdown at n=42.8 days
Per Kalshi, on 10/18 noon CT. At this rate, we miss Metro area Employment/Unemployment, Consumer Expenditures, Employment Cost Index, Business Employment Dynamics, September JOLTS, Productivity and Costs, October Employment Situation releases on their scheduled dates.
US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…
Hard to assess, since we don’t know how much was blown.
IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
From the report,faster growth in the world, US – but US level below pre-Trump trend:
Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
WEI and WECI, for data releases through 10/11/2025:
Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
Data suggests that Big Mac prices are far outpacing the CPI, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index. Oh, the humanity!