Up for geopolitical risk, not for financial.
Geopolitical, Financial Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty
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Oil Jumps 13%
Tensions in the Mideast cause a spike. One hour into futures trading:
One of These Is Not Like the Others: Employment
What to expect in the February release.
The Economy: When We Last Entered a Land War on the Asian Mainland
Employment fell as EPU rose; production stalls as Geopolitical Risk spiked.
Core PCE Instantaneous Inflation at 3.6% in January, Same in February?
Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for February, y/y inflation will be 3%, instantaneous at 3.2%, 3.6% instantaneous using Goldman Sachs estimate based on today’s PPI release.
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
At high frequency, the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-Fed funds spreads are shrinking:
Alternative Estimates of Q4 Output
GDO and GDP+.
News-Based Trade Policy Uncertainty Highest since April
So the IEEPA tariffs are gone. Now a hodge podge of indefinitely-lived tariffs lives on, with uncertainty elevated.
Confidence and Sentiment: February 2026
With the release of the Conference Board’s Confidence Index, and the SF Fed’s News Sentiment Index, we have the following picture:
Guest Contribution: “Understanding Bond-Stock Price Comovements”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.