The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of business cycle chronologies in the Euro Area. The latest announcement is from April 17, 2024. What do more recent indicators suggest (a partial survey)?
Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3.
NBER BCDC indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators, nowcasts. As one who noted the high likelihood of recession by August 2024, I can’t see a downturn in the current vintages of (preliminary) data.
While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months.
A common refrain I see in some conservative circles is that employment gains or GDP are juiced by “fake” activity, of which government spending is one and health care services are another (health care services are allegedly “fake” by virtue of being mostly government funded – at least that’s the argument I see a lot).
The recovery continues, with a recession hard to see (even incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision without caveat). A snapshot of indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
Here’s the current situation:
Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).
My guess for private NFP: