From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as the Q1 3rd release.
Personal income, consumption both down in May, with today’s release. Industrial production, civilian employment in NFP concept down from previous releases. Monthly GDP from SPGMI and manufacturing and trade industry sales down in April…it’s reasonable to ask whether this is all signaling something.
So much for a manufacturing renaissance, post-“Liberation Day”.
Those are some of the topic areas of this year’s NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics, which took place in Split, Croatia.
In McCauley’s VoxEU post (first of three), he presents a pictorial depiction of exorbitant privilege:
NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, GS tracking:
With industrial production, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:
Oil prices jump:
The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g., NYT). First, an interesting picture from Truflation:
With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on: