I have been updating graphs for my money and banking course, and here is the graph I generated to illustrate the tremendous impact of government borrowing on interest rates via portfolio crowding out (as argued in this post).
Back of the Envelope Estimates of Chinese Trade Elasticities
And pitfalls in partial equilibrium analyses
Following up on my previous post, I want to examine what would happen if the Chinese yuan appreciated in real terms, either because of nominal appreciation, or because of more rapid inflation in China versus its trade partners. Here are some back of the envelope estimates.
The Yuan’s Course, Updated and Extended
Since China’s currency is in the news [NYT], [Reuters] [Economix/Leonhardt], I thought it useful to update and extend the data depictions from the post a week ago.
What’s the Fed signaling?
There’s an aspect of Tuesday’s statement from the FOMC that’s not being emphasized by many analysts.
Some Policy Implications of the Interdependence of Cyclical and Structural Unemployment
I have decided to forego discussion of the potentially heavy burdens faced by households with incomes in excess of $250,000 should the tax cuts not be extended for income in excess of $250K (see the poignant story here), and focus on the challenges of the unemployed, and what challenges persistent unemployment in turn poses for macroeconomic policy. (Side note: our assessment of the plight of the +$250K income households should be tempered by the knowledge that even those households with income in excess of $250K will see a tax cut under the President’s proposal, since household income below the $250K threshold would be taxed at the current lower marginal rate [0])
The fat lady sings
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee issued a statement today declaring that the bottom of the most recent recession was reached in June of 2009, with the economy in the expansion phase of the business cycle during the 15 months since then. This confirms the announcement issued by the Econbrowser Business Cycle Dating Committee last April.
What’s holding back employment growth?
I certainly agree that the most important factor holding back employment growth at the moment is low demand for firms’ products and services. But I disagree with those who suggest that this is the only factor.
Keep on Cooking Your Eggs and Washing Your Pre-Washed Spinach Thoroughly
Fortunately for me, I don’t like peanut butter. From NYT, on the Senate bill to expand FDA powers and increase funding:
The Yuan’s Course
The debate over the yuan’s value is heating up again. [Free Exchange/RA] [WSJ RTE/Talley] [WSJ RTE] Here is a plot of two relevant time series.
“Is the U.S. heading toward another recession?”
That was the title of the Minnesota Public Radio’s Midmorning show, with Kerri Miller. Charles Wheelan, of The Naked Economist, and I were the guests.