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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Scary Movie: Pseudo-Economics Edition

EJ Antoni/Heritage presents this picture which should scare the beejeebus out of us.

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Nationwide Grocery Prices at 2024M01 Levels

From the CPI release:

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Core Inflation, with PPI and Nowcasted PCE Deflator

With the PPI release, and Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast as of today:

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Mackintosh/WSJ: “A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?”

Article today on whether it matters if dis-inversion occurs because short rates fall, or long rates rise.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

SIX Five Measures of Instantaneous Core Inflation

With August CPI release, we have core, chained core, supercore, and services supercore (via P. Skrzypczynski). PPI comes tomorrow.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

The Net Petroleum Balance

In real dollars:

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Gasoline Prices Down…

As recorded by EIA.

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

High Frequency Prices in Presidential Prediction Markets

From PredictIt, just one hour into the debate:

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

On WisconsinEye: “The Economy on the Campaign Trail”

Mike Knetter and I joined Lisa Pugh for a conversation yesterday about the economy and the election. Here’s the video:

 

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Betting on Recession? Literally…

From Polymarket, accessed 4pm CT today:

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
  • The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
  • Your Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
  • June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
  • Policy Uncertainty Spikes

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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