Preliminary NFP count is down 6.5K (on 3 million), unemployment rate up 0.1 ppts.
The Partisan Split in August Sentiment
Michigan 67.8 vs 66.7. Big jump in expectations 72.1 vs. 68.5 (as opposed to current situation).
Scariest Paragraph for Applied Econometricians in Project 2025
From Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025, page 664:
At It Again: “Donald Trump promises an ‘economic boom’ if he wins US election”
Russia GDP Slowdown in Q2: 4% y/y Growth
From BOFIT today (as translated by Google):
Naval Deployments as of 8/12/2024
From the US Naval Institute:
Kursk 2024 – Update 8/15/2024
From MilitaryLand.
Business Cycle Indicators – NBER and Alternative – Mid-July 2024
With the Fed’s industrial production release (-0.6% m/m vs. -0.3% consensus) and retail sales (+1.0% m/m vs. +0.4% consensus), we have the following pictures, the first of the indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Five Measures
With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series.
The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):
Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…