As reported by the Rosstat, via TradingEconomics:
High Frequency Recession Indicators
Lewis/Mertens/Stock and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly indicators, and Torsten Slok’s rundown.
Prediction Markets: RCP Average Flips
The RealClearPolitics betting average has typically lagged PredictIt, which flipped on 7/31. RCP’s betting average flipped on August 8, and now looks like this (approx 11:24 CT):
Kursk in 2024
The largest tank battle in WWII took place around Kursk, not far from where the current Ukrainian incursion is.
“Labor Department Quietly Cuts Employment Growth in Half”
That’s the title of an article by Heritage’s EJ Antoni:
Hovde Predicts Recession
As of Wednesday (via WisPolitics):
“Mandate for Leadership” (aka Project 2025) on Trade Policy: The Case for Fair Trade
I have delayed reviewing this portion of chapter 26 of the Project 2025 because I knew it would be painful to read. But as the election nears, it’s incumbent upon all of us to take up our burdens in support of good policy. So here is some key text from this portion of the chapter, written by my onetime (40-42 years ago) coauthor Peter Navarro (the second portion, “The case for free trade” by Kent Lassman is a useful orthodox treatment of trade policy).
Revisiting the Recession Call of 2022H1
Now that we’re talking recession (again), it seems like a good idea to remind ourselves of the last time some observers declared unequivocally that we were in recession, to wit, Steven Kopits, January 2, 2023:
Each Time I Read Something Out of WMC, I Experience Cognitive Dissonance
From the just-released Summer WMC Wisconsin Employer Survey:
GDPNow vs. WSJ July Forecast
From Atlanta Fed today, 2.9% SAAR in Q3: