With new pressure on the Obama Administration to approve the Keystone Gulf Coast Expansion Pipeline, I thought it would be helpful to review some of the debate.
Dispatches (XVII): “Things are continually and gradually moving in the right direction”
That’s the concluding line from the release issued by the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development’s Secretary Reginald Newson. The preceding sentence is “The job numbers are a lagging indicator for economic conditions, and we will continue to move forward.” Here are two graphs, with updated DWD data incorporating revisions, and preliminary data for November, that place those comments in context.
“Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?”
The answer is no, and yes.
From the paper by that title, coauthored with Yin-Wong Cheung (UCSC, CUHK) and Xingwang Qian (SUNY Buffalo State). (This is a revision of the paper discussed here.)
For the “no” part:
We find that Chinese trade flows respond to economic activity and relative prices — as
represented by a trade weighted exchange rate — but the relationships are not always precisely or
robustly estimated. Chinese exports are generally well-behaved, rising with foreign GDP and
decreasing as the Chinese renminbi (RMB) appreciates….
FOMC statement
The Federal Reserve still would like to do more, but not right now.
Dispatches (XVI): Measuring Progress in Wisconsin
Macroeconomic indicators turning downward.
There is a recurring commercial going out over Wisconsin airwaves arguing for progress [0], link to . This impelled me to consult some metrics regarding progress in the state, following up on this
post from a month ago.
More on those secret Federal Reserve loans to banks
The claim that the Federal Reserve extended trillions of dollars in secret loans to banks continues to be spread. Here at Econbrowser we will continue to try to correct some of the misunderstanding that is out there.
Advice for the academic job market
For new econ Ph.D.’s about to look for a job, the University of Wisconsin has provided a short video of what you might expect when you give your first talk presenting your research to the faculty.
Lost Decades, Illustrated
When I discuss Lost Decades I always stress the fact that the “s” denotes the plural. Figure 1 shows that a decade and a half in, the trajectory of output has been noticeably depressed since 2001Q1.
Supply Chains and the Future of Globalization in the Wake of the Tōhoku Earthquake and Tsunami
I was sitting in a briefing recently, where I heard how US GDP would be measurably affected by the floods in Thailand –- specifically through the shutdown of production of key auto parts. [0] That reminded me of the supply-chain-propagated impact of events nine months earlier, following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Here’s the trade-related part of the assessment from my colleague Isao Kamata’s article in the La Follette Policy Report, “The Great East Japan Earthquake: A View on Its Implication for Japan’s Economy”:
$7.77 trillion in secret Federal Reserve loans to banks?
I have been looking into the claim recently made by any number of internet sites (for example, here’s one of the many hundreds, if you insist on a link) that the Federal Reserve made $7.77 trillion in secret loans to banks. The claim is outrageously inaccurate, as I explain below.