The CBO recently released a document that places our current policy dilemma in context (Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections Since January 2001, June 7, 2012).
Current economic conditions
I see both dark clouds and rays of hope.
Update on U.S. gasoline prices
Two weeks ago, I commented on the tendency of U.S. retail gasoline prices to follow the price of Brent crude oil, anticipating on the basis of the price of Brent, then at $91.50, that we might expect to see average U.S. retail gasoline prices, then at $3.47, to fall an additional 35 cents/gallon. The gasoline price has since come down about 11 cents. But with Brent now surging back up near $100, this is about all we can expect.
Emerging Reserve Currencies?
From the abstract to “A Note on Reserve Currencies
with Special Reference to the G-20 Countries”
It is most likely that the current reserve currencies will retain their status in the near future, given the persistence in the composition of reserve holdings.
Natural gas liquids
According to the Energy Information Administration, in March the United States produced a “total oil supply” of 10.8 million barrels per day, which was 2.1 mb/d more than in January 2005. But if you just rely on those aggregate numbers, you’ll miss some very important trends.
Guest Contribution: The Fed Shirks Its Duties
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Joseph E. Gagnon of the Peterson Institute of International Economics.
Links for 2012-06-27
Quick links to another proposal for Europe, and estimates of U.S. consumer benefits from lower natural gas and gasoline prices.
Guest Contribution: “Labor Shares and Corporate Savings”
In a Guest Contribution today, Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman (University of Chicago) discuss their recent research on “Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Savings.”
Gasoline prices coming down
West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which had been selling for $105 a barrel at the end of March, fell to $80 a barrel last week, while Brent has come from $125 down to near $90. These price declines will translate into substantial savings for U.S. consumers in the weeks ahead.
Thirty Years Ago Today
A personal reflection on the hazards of nationalist approaches to economic policy discourse