From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s post “Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates”.
GDP Forecast: CBO above WSJ
WSJ July forecast relative to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday:
Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates
Messages from the WSJ July Survey:
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-July 2024
Industrial production at +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus).
Will Peter Navarro Be Right on Powell?
As noted earlier, Peter Navarro indicated Jerome Powell would be “gone in a hundred days”. Trump in a Bloomberg interview:
Russia Real GDP and GDP ex-Military Spending
Using the April 2024 WEO projections (the July update indicates no revision for 2024 growth, and -0.3 ppts for 2025 y/y), we can see the following trajectory for Russian output, and Russia output ex-military spending.
The Market Based SOFR Path
As of 7/15 and month ago:
Russia Economic Sit-Rep: Recession in the Coming Year?
Gorodnichenko, in YahooFinance:
July 2024 WEO Update Released
As of today:
Food Inflation Stable, Down in the Midwest
Through June: