GDP at 1.5%, PCE at 1.8%.
Still Waiting for the Recession, Weekly Data through 12/30
Through the year’s end, Year-on-Year growth is accelerating modestly, according to the WEI.
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI
Courtesy of CFS, here is M4 Divisia velocity (rescaled to 1967Q1=1):
Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of 2024
November monthly GDP is reported by S&P Global Market Insights, up 0.2 ppts, 2.6% annualized. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Deviation of Instantaneous Inflation from Target
For CPI, CPI core, PCE deflator, PCE core deflator:
Gasoline Prices thru 1/3 (updated – nominal and real)
From GasBuddy:
Foreign Term Spread Augmented Recession Model Prediction
Ahmed and Chinn (2023), coauthored with Rashad Ahmed, accepted at JMCB. The US and Foreign 10yr-3mo inversion remain deep (although not as deep as in March when last I posted).
FX Turnover through 2022
Doing some research on international currencies, I reviewed FX turnover data from the BIS, through April 2022. Dollar dominated, two months after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Year in Review, 2023: Deep State @ BLS, Russia’s Expanded Invasion No Big Deal (to the World Economy), and Wisconsin’s Senator Theoden
Slightly behind schedule, my year reviewed. Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity” This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to keep on trying to erase stupidity.
Wisconsin Economic Indicators Diverge
The labor market looks stronger than GDP.