Last one for August (from Survey of Professional Forecasters).
Already in Recession?
Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper:
August Survey of Professional Forecasters: GDP
Continued growth:
JD Vance: “The political leadership of this country should have a greater say on the monetary policy of the United States”
My transcription of JD Vance’s statement re: the Fed, on “State of the Union”, interviewed by Dana Bash today. Might’ve gotten a few words wrong, but got the essence I think.
Russia M/M Inflation at 1.1% in July
As reported by the Rosstat, via TradingEconomics:
High Frequency Recession Indicators
Lewis/Mertens/Stock and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly indicators, and Torsten Slok’s rundown.
Prediction Markets: RCP Average Flips
The RealClearPolitics betting average has typically lagged PredictIt, which flipped on 7/31. RCP’s betting average flipped on August 8, and now looks like this (approx 11:24 CT):
Kursk in 2024
The largest tank battle in WWII took place around Kursk, not far from where the current Ukrainian incursion is.
“Labor Department Quietly Cuts Employment Growth in Half”
That’s the title of an article by Heritage’s EJ Antoni:
Hovde Predicts Recession
As of Wednesday (via WisPolitics):