From Torsten Slok/Apollo today, following up on the post yesterday:
Recession Probabilities for June 2025
Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model.
China GDP News, and a View on Chinese Medicine
China q/q and y/y GDP below consensus, +0.7% vs +1.1% cons, +4.7% vs. +5.1% cons (Bloomberg).
Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: Some Papers [updated to 7/15]
I’ve spent the last week seeing lots of presentations on macro and international finance. Of particular interest are some papers on interest rate parity:
CEA: “Tariffs as a Major Revenue Source: Implications for Distribution and Growth”
Released today by CEA:
Inflation, Greedflation, Economy-wide vs. Corporate Sector
In a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, Sylvain Leduc, Huiyu Li, and Zheng Liu answered the question: “Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation?” If one defines inflation as a broad, economy-wide increase in prices, the answer is mostly “no”.
Four Measures of Consumer Prices for June (and Two for May)
In addition to CPI, we have chained CPI, CPI-wage earners, HICP, a nowcast for PCE, as well as May PCE – market based. The four June price indices are down.
Instantaneous PPI Inflation
PPI reads above consensus:
Instantaneous Inflation in June
CPI m/m (headline, core) below consensus (-0.1% vs +0.1%, +0.1 vs +0.2, respectively).
Nontraditional Reserve Holdings, Through 2022
…although incomplete data for 2022.