Today, we present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Donald D. Hester Distinguished Chair in Economics at UW Madison and Steve Pak Yeung Wu, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCSD.
Spreads in the Meatpacking Industry: Beef
Here’s the time series on beef farm-to-wholesale spread, in 1982-84$.
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official
The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.1mn, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current official CES series.
Manufacturing in Recession?
Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Here’s a picture of various series relevant to the manufacturing sector.
The Preliminary Benchmark Revision in Context
818 downward revision in March 2024 NFP.
Recession before the Election?
I see a bevy of economists (a lot on the right, see here) saying we’re in a recession, or soon to be in one. What do predictive models say?
NABE on Trade Policy
Conspiracy of Silence at the Treasury about the Definition of a Recession (!)
Not from the Onion, but rather from the Daily Signal, mouthpiece of the Heritage Foundation:
Guesses on the Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Grocery Prices and Wholesale Food Prices
The Harris Walz plan for reining in grocery prices appears to contain two components, one of which has attracted a lot of attention (stopping price gouging), while the second (antitrust against food processors) has garnered less criticism (see agenda here). While it might be the case that grocery store chains are exploiting some monopoly power, it’s not clear to me it’s the most important aspect of grocery price developments.