As of today:
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m/m at consensus, nominal income at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Here’s the picture of key NBER BCDC indicators plus monthly GDP:
2024Q2 GDP Advance Release: Too Good to Be True?
GDP surprised on the upside at 2.8% q/q AR vs. Bloomberg consensus 2.0%. One purported financial adviser writes:
2.8% Fake GDP is number are reported by biased govt agencies. What a sham…..believe nothing question everything. Does anyone believe economy is same now as it was 6 yrs ago?
Still strong after all these years
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s close to the long-run historical average of 3.1%, and continues what has now become a fairly impressive record of an economy that continues to chug along despite constant predictions of its imminent demise.
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Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate.
MacIver Institute: “The Real Wisconsin Economy”
Michael Lucas comments on July 1st, painting a grim picture of Wisconsin employment. For comparison, here are some other aggregate numbers, including the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, released today.
CBO: Budgetary and GDP Implications of the Immigration Surge
From CBO report released yesterday.
Instantaneous Core Inflation
Four out of five measures down:
DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects
Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes.
News and Sentiment
A snapshot as of July: