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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

So now you know

As part of its ongoing efforts at helping the public understand exactly what its intentions might be, the Federal Reserve today released more detailed minutes of its October 30-31 meeting that included the Fed’s expectations for what comes next.

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This entry was posted on November 20, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

The Credit Card Bill Comes Due (International Version)

The nation borrowed from the rest-of-the-world when interest rates were low. But interest rates can adjust. So can exchange rates. What to think of our creditors re-appraisal of the “right” effective interest rate to lend to us?

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This entry was posted on November 20, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

The challenge of depletion

Where’s that large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply when you really need it?

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This entry was posted on November 19, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

Tales from the Tails of the WSJ Forecast

The interesting aspects of the survey of forecasts conducted by the Wall Street Journal (data here) are not in the means (or medians), but in the tails.

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This entry was posted on November 17, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

Trusting the birth/death model

Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy Research Associates has some interesting observations on the quality of the payroll employment numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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This entry was posted on November 16, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

Assessing CBO Projections

CBO releases CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2007 Update [pdf].

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This entry was posted on November 16, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

Musings on the Trade Release and Consumption Theory

Last week’s trade release induced some wide-ranging thoughts, that spurred more questions than answers. In an experimental post, I’ll pose some questions that I hope readers will help me answer.

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This entry was posted on November 15, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

New research on the causes of the housing boom and bust

What are the respective contributions of national and local factors to recent changes in house prices?

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This entry was posted on November 13, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

The Credit Crunch Continues, and the Conundrum Is History

The credit crunch seems to be worsening, rather than lessening, and the conundrum seems to have disappeared.

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This entry was posted on November 12, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

Oil, gold, the dollar, and inflation

Do the ongoing surge in gold and oil prices and slide in the dollar signal a resurgence of inflation?

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This entry was posted on November 11, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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