Some interesting tidbits can be gleaned from the BEA’s recent release. First, despite the acceleration in growth in 2007Q2, the level of output in 2007Q2 is less than what we thought — as of 28 June — it was in 2007Q1. Second, q/q consumption growth now looks weaker than it did before. Third, while net exports provided a big boost to GDP growth, a large chunk of that effect is attributable to import compression, rather than export acceleration. How one views the durability of the net export effect depends in large part upon how one views the sources of import and export trends.
Recession Indicators: Where Do They Stand?
Recession probability index rises to 26.2%
Definitely some things to be encouraged about by the latest GDP report, but the overall impression of economic weakness remains.
Ouch
No, this was not a good housing report.
Will Dollar Depreciation Prevent A Recession?
As worries from ever expanding — but always containable — housing and mortgage market collapse mount (see this Reuters article), some analysts believe that the external accounts will save the day. From Bloomberg (July 23):
San Diego index of leading indicators
Professor Alan Gin’s index may be of interest to those of us wondering where California’s economy is headed and to anyone who might want to construct a similar index for their own local economy.
What is Chinese GDP really doing?
Amidst all the discussion about rampant Chinese GDP growth, the appropriate conduct of macro policy in restraining that growth, and the implications for the components of aggregate demand, a simple question leads to complicated answers.
Ethanol and food price volatility
If this is what we get in a good year, what will happen when we have a bad crop?
“We have always thought that America got away with something.”
Well, maybe not anymore. And perhaps not even before.
The quote is from an article on how the weak dollar is raising the costs of traveling to Europe, as the USD/EUR rate flirts with 1.40. The longer quote, from yesterday’s NYT article entitled “As Dollar Crumples, Tourists Overseas Reel”
, is:
Bernanke on the economic outlook
In testimony before the U.S. Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke continued his policy of greater openness and transparency for Federal Reserve policy, trying to lay out clearly what the Fed is most worried about.