Thinking about some big global macro issues
M2 and inflation
High commodity prices and indications of rising inflation have renewed interest in the hypothesis that the U.S. has been increasing the money supply in recent years at an excessive rate.
Gambling on Trade
In 2001, the Bush Administration set in motion the machinery to impose tariffs on steel imports. The purported reason was to secure fast track (trade negotiating) authority. How does that gamble look five years later?
Wedges and widgets
The phenomenal boom of Canada’s oil sands industry continues, despite the complete absence of any government crash program to cope with peak oil.
Exchange rate pass through and dollar decline
Is there a direct relationship running from a change in the dollar’s value and import and export prices and thence to consumer prices?
Natural gas and crude oil prices
Can natural gas fall this far without oil prices moving more?
Energy futures as predictors
Many publications use energy futures as proxy measures for market expectations of future energy prices. Does this procedure make sense?
Stagflation
We all understand that the Fed’s next move depends on incoming data. But what if the incoming data raise concerns of both higher inflation and slower output growth?
Is dollar depreciation a separate policy channel for trade balance adjustment?
The dollar is on the decline…more or less. Will this cause the long awaited adjustment?
Commodity price inflation
Commodity markets have been a little too exciting recently for my quiet tastes.