We’re well into a severe housing downturn by every measure except for the number of people working in residential construction.
The Empirics of Chinese Trade and Implications of Yuan Appreciation
In previous posts I’ve discussed some of the estimates of aggregate trade elasticities. Some new work presented at a recent IMF conference on Chinese trade suggests that we may need to revise some of our views on the efficacy of yuan appreciation for inducing expenditure switching.
Can this be true?
Via Captain’s Quarters, in response to the Rasmussen poll question
Did Bush know about the 9/11 attacks in advance?
allegedly 35% of American Democrats answered “yes” and another 26% said they are not sure.
If that’s accurate, America’s system for communicating facts and ideas is seriously broken. I’m wondering if that breakdown might be related to the following dilemma. If you are a liberal elected official or opinion maker who is shown evidence of such massive delusion, do you (a) try to correct it, or (b) try to exploit it?
New job creation slows significantly
No, I don’t like the latest employment numbers.
Auto sales down in April
The number of new cars and light trucks sold in America was down nearly 8% in April relative to the previous year. That’s a significant deterioration of the recent downward trend, but not yet a catastrophic plunge.
Is the “Investment Disconnect” So Surprising? Could It Be Even More Extreme Than We Think?
There’s been a flurry of discussion about nonresidential investment in the wake of Paul Krugman’s column (purchase required) on the subject. See commentary at Economists View and Brad Delong.
Idle hands are the devil’s workshop
Professor Gordon Dahl (my colleague here at UCSD) and Berkeley Professor Stefano DellaVigna have an interesting new research paper titled Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?
Four Years after “Mission Accomplished”
I thought that it was proper and fitting to evaluate the state of affairs in Iraq four years after President Bush declared the end of major military combat operations in Iraq.
Consumption smoothing and economic slowdowns
How alarming is it that 200% of 2007:Q1 GDP growth came from consumption spending?
Recession probability index rises to 16.9
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, moving our recession probability index up to 16.9%. This post provides some background on how that index is constructed and what the latest move up might signify.