Are declining capital imports growth rates an indicator of recession?
Slower employment growth
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that U.S. nonfarm payrolls, as measured by their survey of establishments, increased by a seasonally adjusted 97,000 workers in February.
WMDs in Iraq, “Last throes…” and… “deficits don’t matter”
According to former Secretary of Treasury Paul O’Neill, Dick Cheney is reputed to have said: “…deficits don’t matter.”
(see Suskind’s The Price of Loyalty, and online here). What’s the (updated) evidence?
Financial crises
Financial or banking panics were a recurrent theme in 19th-century U.S. economic history.
Globalization and Inflation: Thinking about Identification
Recent news articles ([1], [2]) and
blog posts (Economists View,
Big Picture) have discussed Bernanke’s March 2 speech on globalization and inflation.
CAFE standards
Featuring prominently in the new energy plan from President Bush is a call for changes in the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standards that the Administration claims could reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 5% over the next 10 years. Here are some of the reasons I’m not thrilled by that suggestion.
New feature: Econbrowser faces the data
We’ve added a couple of new features to the sidebar.
Whither the Chinese Yuan?
The problem with writing blog posts in advance (I wrote most of this on the 25th) is that they may very well be rendered obsolete by the passage of events, especially when covering financial markets. Hopefully, in this case, the heightened uncertainty in emerging markets — as well as the durability of the yen carry trade — will not change the outlook for the CNY very much.
Easy come, easy go
Well, that 3.5% 2006:Q4 GDP growth was fun while it lasted.
Recession watch
Recent data leave me significantly more bearish than I was a month ago.