I was pleased to participate in the latest
Wall Street Journal Econoblog
with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and co-founder of Moody’s Economy.com. Here’s a brief preview of what you can
find over at the WSJ.
Thinking about import prices, the dollar, and inflation
Some delayed reflections on the May import/export price release, and how to interpret the data in light of the empirics of exchange rate pass through.
Slipping a little
I wouldn’t read too much into the new starts, permits, and sentiment data, but I don’t take them as very encouraging.
Rejoice! The 2006 current account to GDP ratio has been revised up by 0.3 percentage points
There’s a temptation to view the upward revision to the current account balance, and the components thereof, as yet more evidence that the US external situation is in better shape than commonly perceived.
Oil shale hits a freeze
Don’t count on running your Hummer on gasoline from oil shale just yet.
More on those rising interest rates
Rising rates look scary, but I still read it as good news.
Lessons from the yield curve
The dramatic upward move of long-term interest rates gives me an opportunity to look back on some of the predictions made on the basis of the inversion of the yield curve, and what might be in store next.
Keeping China’s Yuan in Perspective
The Treasury released its report International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies yesterday. As expected, the Treasury declined to declare China a currency manipulator. On the same day, four senators submitted legislation to tie Treasury’s hands in terms of the actions it can take against countries with “misaligned” currencies.
Reconciling the BED, CES, and birth/death employment data
There has been some discussion recently about discrepancies between different government estimates of the state of the labor market. Although a legitimate issue has been raised, there has also been a bit of misunderstanding.
Musings on Inflation Worries
The selloff in the stock market last week was attributed by some to inflation worries — namely that persistent inflation means a reduction in the Fed Funds rate is less likely than the market had until recently believed.