With world oil supplies already stressed by production cutbacks in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, worries that the Israeli conflict might further disrupt oil shipments have produced new price highs. How does that affect the prospects for an economic downturn?
Are we there yet?
Almost, but not quite, sayeth the fed funds futures.
Out of sample prediction of the euro, pound and CAD
Once more unto the breach.
China roars into the automotive era
Guess who’s now the second-biggest market for new cars in the world?
Is the surge in tax receipts truly extraordinary?
There has been much talk about how the deficit problem has been licked, as tax receipts surge. Is (Lafferian) supply-side economics right? Are we in a new era of surging tax receipts for the forseeable future? The short answers are “no” and “no”.
One picture from the 2005 International Investment Position release (and one from the NIPA)
Amid all the relief (see here and — kind of — here) over the improvement in the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) despite the record current account deficit, the trend in one ratio was unremarked upon — namely the ratio of U.S. Government securities held by non-residents, divided by GDP.
Questions remain about Saudi oil
Is Saudi Arabia part of the reason for oil’s new price highs?
Production subsidies for ethanol
Do we need to subsidize ethanol production? Does it matter if we are subsidizing the input (i.e., corn)? This is not a rhetorical question.
The Fed speaks and markets listen
Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made had some interesting graphs this week.
All eyes on housing
Mark Thoma notes that the most recent FOMC statement has changed from declaring growth is “likely to moderate” to “Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating”. The first stages of the long-anticipated cooling of the housing market certainly appear to be here now.