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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

An open letter to the Honorable Judge Carl J. West

My two cents worth on the multimillion dollar class-action lawsuit that was filed on my behalf against Ralphs Grocery Company.

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This entry was posted on April 13, 2006 by James_Hamilton.

February Trade Figures

A (semi-) Positive Surprise on the trade balance

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This entry was posted on April 12, 2006 by Menzie Chinn.

War fears and the price of oil

More talk this week of war with Iran, and the price of oil jumps right up. Maybe the two are related, and maybe not.

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This entry was posted on April 10, 2006 by James_Hamilton.

External scientific advice at the Department of Energy

Energy department abolishes science advisory board

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This entry was posted on April 10, 2006 by Menzie Chinn.

Who’s grumpy about this week’s good economic news?

People who bought long-term Treasuries at 4.3%, that’s who.

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This entry was posted on April 8, 2006 by James_Hamilton.

The yield curve and predicting recessions

Jonathan Wright, a brilliant research economist at the Federal Reserve Board, recently completed a very interesting paper titled The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions. Wright’s research seems to have been influential in Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s recent assessment that the current very flat yield curve does not signify a coming significant economic slowdown.

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This entry was posted on April 6, 2006 by James_Hamilton.

Message or Messenger

Why is Secretary Snow such a perennial target?

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This entry was posted on April 5, 2006 by Menzie Chinn.

What’s moving long-term yields?

Long-term interest rates continue to creep up.

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This entry was posted on April 4, 2006 by James_Hamilton.

Trends in Dollar Reserves

Latest data

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This entry was posted on April 4, 2006 by Menzie Chinn.

The Full Employment Budget Surplus

The CBO’s latest estimates

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This entry was posted on March 30, 2006 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 3.5 (describes  2026:Q2)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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