From the Atlanta Fed Market Probability Tracker:
The Year (and 2 months) of Living Dangerously
Economic Policy Uncertainty (US, Global), Trade Policy Uncertainty, GeoPolitical Risk, Stock Market, and (now) Oil Volatility all enhanced from January 2025 onward. Coincidence?
Random Question: How Many People Won as the US/Europeans in this Game?
“Oil War” – seize the oil fields before they’re blown up.
“The ECB and Its Watchers XXVI”
Today, at Goethe University, from the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability:
Naval Deployment as of March 23
From USNI.
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
Talking about the dollar, Trump, and stupidity as an exogenous variable, next couple of days…
Guest Contribution: “Is Immigration Bad for America?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim.
Nowcasts and Forecasts
Nowcasts are typically below pre-war forecasts.
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
From the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker, today:
Recession Probabilities: All around 30%-35%
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months: