I see a lot of ebullience in the wake of the March headline NFP number. I’m not so convinced (see here), and looking at other indicators buttresses my wariness.
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War vs. Now
From Atlanta Fed, calculations as of today:
“Liberation Day” Plus One Year
Nice roundup on political economy and geoeconomics from Council on Foreign Relations.
Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Wake of “F*****’ Strait” Post
Remarkably low (considering) and high (since it’s *economic* policy):
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?
If it seems that the BLS CES nonfarm payroll employment series has looked a bit more variable than usual, you might not be imagining it (although one would be very hard pressed to show it’s a statistically significant difference). To see this, compare against the ADP measure.
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
From inflation breakevens, estimated:
Trump Credibility Measured
From TruthSocial, 5AM ET:
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Given Projected Population, Is the Administration’s Forecast Plausible?
If one uses a simple random walk with drift estimate over the 2022Q1-2025Q3 period, the answer is yes. However, given the Administration’s internment and removals program, the current projection of population suggests not.
So Much Winning: Guess I Should’a Bought My Airline Ticket Five Weeks Ago
Jet fuel price, from EIA via FRED:
The Troika Economic Forecast under Vought-Miran-Bessent
The President’s FY2027 budget was released yesterday, some two months late.