Primarily from the production function approach (discussion here).
SP500 CAPE at 40
September P/E ratio at 28.
Two Measures of Private NFP Compared
Post-benchmark revision, here are changes in the BLS and ADP series:
Quantifying Partisanship in Perceptions of Current Economic Conditions
Democrats/Lean Democratic current conditions assessment is relative insensitive to Trump being president, and statistically significantly related to news sentiment. Republican/Lean Republican perception is overwhelmingly associated with whether Trump is president.
The Recent Evolution of Ground Beef and Ground Coffee Prices and Tariff Rates in the U.S.
From BLS:
CPI Inflation at 0.69% Year-on-Year, Mid-Month February(?)
According to Truflation, today:
CBR Reduces Rates as Measured GDP Growth Declines
As of yesterday (discussion in WSJ):
Nowcasted PCE Instantaneous Inflation Moving Away from 2% Target
Using Cleveland Fed nowcasts post-CPI release:
Core CPI at Consensus
And headline CPI was below. Here’re price levels for several CPI components:
Ten Days to 2025Q4 Advance Release: Nowcasts, Forecasts
GDPNow shows fast growth…