ADP down while BLS up. Aggregate hours down.
First Readings on March Data, and Business Cycle Indicators
BLS and ADP data are among the first measurements of economic activity in March, after the war’s start.
Nowcast, Tracking of Private Domestic Final Demand (aka “core GDP”)
From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today:
Business Cycle Indicators – Data before the War
Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index…
Anticipating April 10 (March CPI Release)
Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast indicates 0.84% m/m increase in March, based on weekly gasoline and daily oil prices.
Famous Last Words: “get your own oil”
Well, it’s a pretty integrated world market for oil…up to date data for front month futures:
Confidence Surprises Upside (Slightly)
The Conference Board’s Confidence Index at 91.8, up from downwardly revised 91.0 in February, beating Bloomberg consensus of 88.
Guest Contribution: “Oil Shocks Raise Recession Odds and Inflation Risks”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics). The views presented are solely those of the author. A version of this article was posted at ARC blog.
How Much Will Reported Confidence Decline in March?
The Conference Board estimate of consumer confidence comes out tomorrow. Here’s some guesses on how bad it’ll be.
113 Years of the Real Oil Price (WTI)
Tyler Godspeed (former acting CEA Chair Trump 1.0; chief economist ExxonMobil) observes that shocks as determinants of recessions means they are essentially unpredictable.