The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be OBE given slowdown pre-War, and post-War cost-push shock.
Republican Hopes Spring Eternal (Iran War/Economics Edition)
While Republicans/Lean Republican respondents to the U.Michigan survey don’t show a very different response to March/April economic events, they are remarkably upbeat on the future.
Inflation in March, and a Year from Now…
CPI release and U.Michigan expectations, at 4.8% vs. Bloomberg consensus 4.2%
Standardized Sentiment in the Time of Trump
47.6, below consensus of 51.6, down from 53.3.
Dollar Reserves in the Wake of Trump
Have the erratic policies pursued by Mr. Trump over the past year affected dollar holdings? The answer depends.
Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
From the releases today:
Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait
From Kalshi:
The Single Factoral Terms of Gasoline*
As of March end:
Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$:
March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI and PCE, as well as daily oil prices and weekly gasoline prices.