Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions.
An Eventful Week – Interest Rates
10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP
Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP:
Employment: Different Measures
NFP comes under, 114K vs. 176K consensus. Private NFP also missed, +97K vs. +148K consensus.
Trump Prediction Market Meltdown: COB 1 August 2024
From PredictIt on the Presidential Election Winner, 54 Dem / 48 Rep:
“Yellen Rebuffs Trump Argument on Dollar Hurting US Manufacturing”
That’s a title of an article by Christopher Condon, in Bloomberg a few days ago. What’s the evidence? Figure 1 shows the typically referenced CPI deflated trade weighted dollar.
Updating the “Flip”
GDP Per Capita
Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?
Flip? Prediction Markets at July’s End
For party of winner, 50-50 as of noon ET today (PredictIt):
Inflation Expectations in July (and June)
Michigan is down in July, while business unit costs are up slightly.