From Cleveland Fed, Goldman Sachs, plus Bloomberg consensus – generally, acceleration in the q/q annualized:
Miran to Fed: What Are His Views?
Lots of stories regarding the impact of CEA Chair’s temporary appointment to the vacancy at the Fed Board. For an insight into Dr. Miran’s views, here’s a list of his peer reviewed articles.
“And you want to be my latex salesman?” (BLS edition) [updated 8/9/25]
Manufacturing on the Ropes?
Manufacturing employment, hours, capacity utilization down since March 2025 (pre-“Liberation Day”); manufacturing production (Fed index) flat since March.
CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession Watch
Bill McBride’s assessment here.
Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives:
How Are Wisconsin Exports, Manufacturing Doing under Trump Trade War 2.0?
Discussed the employment numbers on WPR this morning. One question came up, which inspired this post – how’s Wisconsin doing, tradewise, given the states’ trade/manufacturing dependence.
Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26
UW Now Live: “Trumponomics” and the state of the U.S. economy” [updated 8/9 w/recording]
EPU and EPU-Trade Policy Uncertainty Measured
Through 8/3: