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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Interesting Word of the Day: Carousel

For the first couple of months of my stint on the CEA staff back in 2000, I had to cover trade issues (my designated area was international finance). One of the first words I learned walking into the EEOB/OEOB– that I hadn’t heard of in my grad school classes — was “Carousel Retaliation”.

From CRS:

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Dairy Hit With Retaliatory Tariffs:

From Wisconsin Cheese Makers Association:

On August 25, Canada announced a broad set of retaliatory tariffs, hitting U.S. dairy hard. Our northern neighbor announced that as of September 8, U.S. cheese entering Canada will face a 25 percent tariff, while milk products, cream, and whey products will see a 50 percent tariff.

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

The Marginal Efficiency of Investment Equation Interpreted in 2024-26

In the IS-LM equation, we have the investment function:

 

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty: Economic and Trade

Through yesterday:

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Who Will We Trade With If the Fed Doesn’t Lower Rates?

At least according to Trump:

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This entry was posted on September 5, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

The Blackest Black Box Mid-Session Review Ever

I was looking to see what the Administration’s Mid-Session Review economic forecast looked like. Alas, courtesy of Jared Bernstein, I am disappointed. Did Vought et al. purge all the economists from the CEA, Treasury and OMB? The MSR:

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

August Real Average Hourly Earnings Nowcasted

With August hourly earnings and nowcasted August CPI:

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators: CES/CPS Employment Surges

Evidence of continued growth:

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Exports under Trump

Down, under Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0:

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This entry was posted on September 3, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Looking at What Used To Be EJ Antoni’s Favorite Household Finances Indicator

Back at the end of 2024, EJ Antoni was citing the Primerica Household Budget Index as indicator of consumer conditions.

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This entry was posted on September 3, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.0 (describes  2026:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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