Here’s a plot to economic sentiment as recorded by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, by political affiliation:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March 2024
Industrial production near consensus, while manufacturing surprises on upside (+0.8% vs. +0.3% m/m). Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP (formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS-Markit).
“Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say”
That’s the title of an article by S. Ganguly for Reuters.
Nearly two-thirds of strategists in a March 6-12 Reuters poll of bond market experts, 22 of 34, said the yield curve’s predictive power is not what it once was.
Russian Growth Slows
From BOFIT today (translated by Google):
Dot Plot vs. Market Expectations
For Econ 442 “Macroeconomic Policy”. A question was raised today regarding whether one could distinguish between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s, regarding the path of Fed funds rates. The short answer is yes, under certain assumptions.
Alternative Measures of NFP
Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark indicates NFP employment is on lower trajectory than indicated by the CES measure, by about 600 thousands. How does this change the picture?
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVII (updated, with Divisia MZM added)
Follow up to Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI. With data up to 2023Q4, the answer remains “no”.
More on r*
From BIS Quarterly Review, article by G. Benigno, B. Hoffmann, G. Nuno Barrau, and D. Sandri:
Inflation in February
Core CPI surprises (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) on the upside, while headline at consensus.
GDP and Treasury Yields in the Administration Forecast
Forecast finalized in November (roughly same time as CBO’s projections, released in February).