Some recent items: papers by Chinn, Frankel and Ito and Kamin and Sobel; talk by Mark Copelovitch on Tuesday.
Category Archives: exchange rates
Teaching Macro 2024
First time teaching undergrad macro (elective, after intermediate macro) in three years, so I thought time to revise the syllabus (Econ 442) to account for new issues (compare against Fall 2001).
Measuring One Aspect of BRICS De-Dollarization: FX Reserves
Interesting recent article from the Carnegie Endowment, entitled “The Difficult Realities of the BRICS’ Dedollarization Efforts—and the Renminbi’s Role”, by Robert Greene.
Erasmus University: “The 25th anniversary ECB Symposium”
Taking place on January 16th in Rotterdam, this is the second part of the symposium at the Erasmus School of Economics & Rotterdam School of Management on this topic, organized by Mary Pieterse-Bloem and Sylvester Eijffinger. The first part took place last July.
FX Reserve Holdings – 50 Years of Data
And 30 years of turnover data. Currently doing regressions on data on reserve bank holdings, in a project with Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito. In terms of aggregates, we have 50 years of estimates (about 25 years of actual data, and yet fewer years on (selected) individual central bank data)
RMB Reserves & Turnover, China GDP Share of World GDP, Avg. Trade Share
Here’s a picture of the RMB’s role as a reserve and vehicle currency, from an ongoing project with Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito, where we examine the determinants of individual central bank reserve holdings.
FX Turnover through 2022
Doing some research on international currencies, I reviewed FX turnover data from the BIS, through April 2022. Dollar dominated, two months after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“source of the weakening of the ruble…is soft monetary policy.”: Putin Chief Economic Adviser
From Bloomberg:
Writing in a rare column published by state news agency Itar-Tass, President Vladimir Putin’s chief economic adviser said “the source of the weakening of the ruble and the acceleration of inflation is soft monetary policy.” Russia needs a strong ruble, and policymakers have the necessary tools to normalize the currency value in the near future, he said.
Measuring Currency Overvaluation in a World with No Intertemporal Trade
The Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Blue Collar Dollar Institute have developed a measure of currency misalignment, reported in their Currency Misalignment Monitor (August issue here). I thought it of interest to compare their estimates of currency overvaluation with those reported by the IMF in its External Sector Report (July). Here’s a chart for the currencies they focused in on in August.
Two Data Sets and Some Papers
For use in ISF 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International Dimensions”.