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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

No October Employment Situation and CPI Releases (Ever?)

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From Bloomberg:

The October jobs and consumer price index reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday.

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This entry was posted on November 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

EJ Antoni on “Improving” Economic Statistics

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From EJ Antoni, announcing on X, joining Truflation:

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This entry was posted on November 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Torsten Slok’s (Slightly Late) Halloween Entry

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Source: Torsten Slok/Apollo.

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This entry was posted on November 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasting the Core Price Level

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CPI and PCE, as of 11/11, from Cleveland Fed:

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This entry was posted on November 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Guessing NFP Growth

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Even with the government shutdown’s imminent end, it may be a while before we get official  readings on employment, maybe never for October’s household series. Here’s what I’ve cobbled together, using ADP data, and guesses for government employment:

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This entry was posted on November 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

SNB-TCD Workshop: “Globalization and the economics of the external sector”

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The Swiss National Bank and International Macro at University College Dublin, in cooperation with the Journal of International Money and Finance, are holding a workshop in Zurich on Thursday, 14 November 2025:

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This entry was posted on November 10, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Negative Equity, and Other Things to Worry About

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I’m teaching a course entitled “The Financial System”, and as part of revising the course, I’m looking at trouble spots. Bill McBride at CR posted this interesting map:

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This entry was posted on November 10, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic and Trade Policy Uncertainty Spikes: Speculation

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Shutdown?Tariff legality? Travel disruptions? SNAP disruption? Collapsing sentiment? Political uncertainty?

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This entry was posted on November 8, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

How Sensitive Is Economic Sentiment Respond to News?

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In 2025, it depends. Particularly if you are a Republican/Lean Republic — then it’s almost zero…

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This entry was posted on November 8, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Expectations, Current Situation, Sentiment Decline to Near Record Low Levels

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Yesterday, University of Michigan Survey consumer sentiment surprised on the downside, (50.3 vs. 53.0 Bloomberg consensus) along multiple dimensions, including assessments of the current situation (52.3 vs. 59.2 consensus)  and expectations regarding the future (49.0 vs. 50.3 consensus); and is deteriorating over time.
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This entry was posted on November 8, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • No October Employment Situation and CPI Releases (Ever?)
  • EJ Antoni on “Improving” Economic Statistics
  • Torsten Slok’s (Slightly Late) Halloween Entry
  • Nowcasting the Core Price Level
  • Guessing NFP Growth

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