Big jumps in yields; as shown at the five year maturity, the move is evident in both nominal and real yields:
Yield Curve Steepening: Expected Inflation vs. Real Rates (or Something Else)
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Employment and Wages: Alternative Measures
Nonfarm payroll employment upside surprise from CES. CPS indicates something less positive, as does ADP, trendwise.
Large Upside NFP Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators
May NFP growth at +172K outpaces +85K Bloomberg consensus (87K surprise vs. 53K Mean Absolute Revision goinng from 1st-3rd release in 2025), on top of upward revisions in April and March.
“Technical Recession” Lessons of 2022 US for 2026 Canada
Tons of politically motivated commentary in Canada about the implications of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and a “technical recession” [1], even though it’s clear most mainstream economists in Canada fail to read much more into the event. I post a figure from 9 months ago, recapping the the 2024 episode in the US.
Proposing Section 301 Sanctions on… the World (or Most of It)
From Bloomberg:
Have We Really Been in Recession since 2022? Antoni & St. Onge Revisited
Not by me, but by Jeffrey A. Tucker, today:
Why We Pay Attention to Personal Income Ex-Transfers (and Why We Wait for Revisions)
Discussion with Justin Ho on MarketPlace yesterday. Disposable income (after tax, after transfers) is useful for assessing the state of the consumer finances, while personal income ex-current transfers — followed by the NBER’s BCDC — is a better reflection of income coming from economic activity.
US Ag Prospects
“Reassessing the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending with a New Composite Index”
Chicago Fed letter, by Brave, Henken, and Jolley:
EconoFact Explainers: (A Lot of) Everything You Wanted to Know about Economics, but Were Afraid to Ask
From EconoFact: