In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised down by 1.27 ppts. GDPNow adjusted for gold imports is on track to match WSJ forecast.
From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”:
An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation confronting Wisconsin.
Here’s a visual sit-rep on prices for Americans.
I’m coming up on lecturing on Fed independence and time consistency etc. President Trump continues to provide (depressingly) many episodes to discuss. No dearth of “current events” topics this term…
GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside.
From Cui, NBC:
Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy erraticism on erosion of the dollar as a safe asset/exorbitant privilege. Kamin deploys regressions to support his conclusions:
The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook.
From NABE two days ago, responses pre- and post-“Liberation Day”: