Front month Brent futures (for June) jumped tonight. Where are gasoline prices going, conditional on those futures being predictive.
Using Today’s Futures, Don’t Expect Gasoline Prices to Soon Return to Antebellum Levels
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What Drives the Administration’s Trend GDP Forecast?
Consider this graph, comparing the Administration’s forecast to the latest WSJ forecast, and an error correction model incorporating Census population forecast.
Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
The optimism of Friday has been wiped away. The odds of a re-opening by May 15 down to 37%, and June contracts up by 5.9%.
Guest Contribution: “Is a Natural Resource Curse Crowding Out US Renewable Energy?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim for research assistance.
Irrational Exuberance in Prediction Markets?
With the recent drop in odds for Strait of Hormuz re-opening, time to examine how credible Mr. Trump’s remarks are being taken. To me, with odds back to below pre-cease fire rates, it seems to me punters should be a little less credulous, In other words, given Mr. Trump’s penchant for overstatement, why do we see these gyrations?
MacParity, January 2026
Answer to Question 5 on Problem Set 4 in Public Affairs 854:
Unsettled Weather in the Midwest: So Glad Trump Cut 600 Staff from National Weather Service
After all, what do those uppity meteorologists know that the DOGE guys didn’t.
From Ranking Member Meng Opening Statement at the National Weather Service Hearing (March 26, 2026):
Auto Prices – Adjusting for Quality and Mix
Following up on comments to the post “Where did all the affordable cars go”, a typical new vehicle bought in 1960 was $1900; in October 2025, it was over $50000. What does that mean?
1.5% m/m Ann’d: What Headline CPI Inflation Has to Be to Restore Pre-War Trend by Dec. 2026
Suppose we get a durable resumption of reopening of the Strait. Oil prices will likely stay elevated for some time (resumption of normal conditions maybe 3-4 months, oil-wise). Assuming the current Cleveland Nowcast for April CPI is correct, what will inflation have to be for the rest of the year to hit pre-War trend?
Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Other Business Cycle Indicators
G.17 release today shows downward movement in industrial, manufacturing production (-0.5%, -0.1% vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1% m/m). Industrial capacity utilization also below consensus.