As of the April 2026 CPI release:
Grocery Prices (and Forecasts)
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Price Levels Relative to January 2025
Everyday prices outstripping measured CPI and subindices:
Real Hourly Wages for April
Using today’s CPI release:
Anticipating Real Hourly Wages for April
CPI deflated and using AIER “Everyday Price Index”:
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Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Both can, and are, true:
Hassett: GDP Growth “north of four, north of five, north of even six [percent]”
From FoxNews:
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds: Down Again
From Kalshi, 7:45pm CT:
Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution of Mufan Chen (University of Wisconsin).
Trump’s Age of Uncertainty
As of yesterday:
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment and Coincident Index
NFP up, but household survey series down.