The 10yr-3mo German spread, hitherto a pretty good predictor, inverted at 2022M12. Hitherto a pretty good predictor of German recessions (as labelled by ECRI), the implied probability was 70%, using a plain vanilla spread regression.
Beyond Brent f.o.b. – from Anthony Chan, who answers a question I’ve long had:
Here is a overall picture, including PPI.
Prices on Monday:
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If you were curious:
It’s not pretty (CRFB):
CEA Chair Phelan on the need for a 50 bps increase in the Fed funds rate, given the hot CPI readings today, contra Waller and Logan (Bloomberg):
High relative to Bloomberg consensus , +0.4% vs. +0.3% m/m for headline, +0.3 vs. +0.2% for core:
Theodore Roosevelt CSG en route, Boxer ARG nearing the region:
Jason Furman has put up a macro simulator based on the FRB/US model. Today, he traces out the model’s implications regarding the AI boom.