From data 10 min ago:
Hormuz Re-opening Odds and Brent June Futures
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Where Will Brent Futures Open Today?
My guess, using Kalshi and EPU, is for $111 yesterday (assuming EPU is the same as yesterday):
“Margaret in Love and War”: An Opera Premiere
7:30pm, at the Leonard Nimoy Thalia at Symphony Space, 2537 Broadway at 95th St. New York:
Composer Laura Schwendinger and librettist Ginger Strand’s opera about Margaret Fuller, a 19th century American journalist and women’s rights advocate, receives its world premiere in a semi-staged production. “Margaret in Love and War” features Marnie Breckenridge in the titular role directed by Chris Alden and a chamber ensemble led by conductor Eiki Isomura.
In 1847, Fuller arrives in Italy at the heart of a revolution. As popular discontent was roiling in Europe, Fuller’s columns for the New York Tribune provide a thrilling account from the front lines. She falls in love with a young revolutionary nobleman and has a child with him before their lives were tragically cut short in a shipwreck.
Updated April Michigan Survey Results
One year ahead inflation expectations down 10 bps, sentiment up 2 points:
One Year Inflation Expectations: A Survey of the Latest
Up, up and away.
Fertilizer Prices in Context
A food crisis in the making. Graph from CSIS, “The Strait of Hormuz in 8 Charts” (22 April 2026).
The Oil Shock in East Asia
From the IMF’s Asia Pacific Department, a blog “Asia’s Economic Resilience Is Being Tested by the Energy Shock”, two tables of interest: Oil and natural gas import dependence and intensity.
Five Year Inflation Expectations, April 22
Inflation break-even as of today: 2.61%
Retail Sales Surprise and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Nominal retail sales grew 1.7% m/m, above Bloomberg consensus of 1.4%. With the advance release of sales, and coincident index from the Philadelphia Fed, we have the following picture.
