Given we’re unlikely to get a CPI release for October…
Hi Frequency Readout on Consumer Prices, Thru 12 October
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Everyday Prices Up 2.2% since Jan. 2025
That’s the AIER Everyday Price Index ™ in September:
Figure 1: CPI all urban (blue), Everyday Price Index (tan), and CPI for limited service restaurants (green), all in logs, 2025M01=0. CPI for limited service restaurants seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. Source: BLS, AIER, and author’s calculations.
Up 2.3% in log terms.
CBO on Macro Effects of the Shutdown
From ” A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of the Government Shutdown on
the Economy Under Three Scenarios, as of October 29, 2025″:
Conference Board Confidence Down Slightly
Both Michigan Sentiment and CB Confidence declined in October.
Macro Implications of Withholding Contingency Funding of SNAP
Contingency funds are available to fund SNAP disbursements for at least part of November. OMB Director Vought’s unprecedented decision to prohibit use of these funds will have macro implications (I eschew any moral or ethical judgments in this discussion), especially if the government shutdown continues.
States with Negative GDP, Employment Growth in 2025H1
Eleven states for GDP, ten for employment:
What Economists Are Against the IEEPA Tariffs? What Economists Are in Favor?
The Strange Cases Wherein Trump Realizes Imports Lower Prices
Egg prices are down. In part because Trump allowed egg imports. Beef steaks and ground beef prices zoomed up; in order to reduce costs to consumers, Trump has quadrupled the Argentina import quota… Why not allow more tariff free imports of coffee? Of steel? Of Aluminum? Of garments?
“The Closing of the American Economy: Implications and Durability”
That’s the title of my presentation at the 2025 Minnesota Economic Association annual meeting, where I had the honor of speaking at the Leonid Hurwicz Lecture. It was a fantastic opportunity to share my thoughts and in responding to thoughtful questions, expand my views. The event took place at St. Catherine University yesterday.
Trade Policy Uncertainty Before the Latest Trump Tantrum (Reagan Quote Edition)
Apparently, in addition to halting trade negotiations with Canada, an additional 10% tariff is to be applied to imports from Canada. It’s unclear which imports will be tariffed (i.e., will USMCA-covered goods be affected?).