That’s from GS yesterday. Question: Should one stock up on ibuprofen, because I anticipate a lot of headaches coming. Asking for a friend.
Monthly GDP is added to key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:
Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate:
For my sins, I get emails from AAPS:
GDP is a measure of output from the spending side. A standard alternative measure is Gross Domestic Output (GDO), the average of GDP and GDI.
Transportation and warehousing boomed. Federal government workers on leave, taking buyouts not included yet (per convention).
Continued growth apparent, although NFP employment pertains to first half of April.
Through May 1st:
And other NBER BCDC indicators.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. One can make excuses for the number, but I’m not feeling optimistic.