Odds for Hormuz reopening by July 1 up and then down relative to 24 hours ago; Brent went down and then back up.
One Day in Trump’s Iran War
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On MarketPlace: “Why this number might be more important than GDP”
Preliminary GDP rose 2% SAAR after 0.5% in Q4. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — aka “core GDP” — grew 2.5% vs. 1.8% previous. In general, since the pandemic, core GDP has been less volatile than GDP, which makes it a more useful metric than actual GDP these days. I discuss this issue on Marketplace today. [Updated version of post from Monday]
Section 122 Tariffs Struck Down
From Bloomberg:
President Donald Trump’s 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful by a federal trade court in a fresh blow to the administration’s economic agenda, several months after the US Supreme Court vacated earlier levies he’d imposed.
A divided three-judge panel at the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan on Thursday granted a request by a group of small businesses and two dozen mostly Democrat-led states to vacate the tariffs. Trump imposed the 10% duties in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which had never previously been invoked.
Farmer Sentiment in a Time of War, both Trade and Kinetic
Hamilton’s Net Oil Price (WTI) Variable
Assuming April value persists into May and June.
How’s That Trade War Going for Wisconsin?
Nominal and real exports are down.
EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, 5 May 2026
From EIA today. Look not only at gasoline, but also diesel
Naval Deployment As of 5/4 … to What End?
From USNI:
Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized):
Consumer Vibes Two Months into the War
Gallup and U.Michigan way down, Conference Board trending sideways.