Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim.
Nowcasts are typically below pre-war forecasts.
From the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker, today:
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months:
Up 0.26 ppts since the war’s beginning. Using Treasury and TIPS:
Courtesy of BLS, AIER, and (for nowcast) Cleveland Fed. Prepare for impact.
Urals way up, to $92.4
Brought to you by TrumpCo:
As of yesterday, open sources indicate:
Larger than the unadjusted, post-Liberation Day: