From IMF’s COFER:
US Dollar Reserves, US-Iran War +1 Month
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Visualizing Trump’s Planned EEOB
For those who once worked there:
Current Betting on Re-Opening by 9/1
As of 12:30PM CT on Kalshi:
Canadian GDP, NFP Recovers
Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025:
The AI Boom: Keep a Watch on (Computer) Imports
Pawel Skrzypczinski admonishes us, and correctly so. Computer, peripheral and part imports surging for now. In 2000, imports peaked a quarter efore investment did.
CoRev on Global Climate Change: Might As Well “Lie Back and Enjoy It”
From CoRev comment on global climate change as measured by temperatures:
Imagine: AI Investment Spending Following Dot-Com Boom?
I have no particular expertise in this subject, aside from being around during the dot-com boom (and being a contributor to ERP 2001). Once dot-com related equity prices declined, investment dried up. Bloomberg’s Mag-7 index is now 12.2% below the May 29 peak.
Calling Rick Stryker (and all other Global Climate Change Skeptics of Yore)
Madison’s had a heat advisory in effect for days — like most of the eastern portion of the US. This reminded me of Rick Stryker’s 2014 admonition to dismiss climate change.
Real Wages since February Have Not Kept Up with Inflation
Given nominal wage growth in the private sector for production and nonsuperivisory workers, and nowcasted CPI, real wages are lower than in February.
Business Cycle Indicators – Key NBER and Alternatives
NFP underwhelms and prior months revised downward, civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept moving downward.