CPI deflated and using AIER “Everyday Price Index”:
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Anticipating Real Hourly Wages for April
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Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Both can, and are, true:
Hassett: GDP Growth “north of four, north of five, north of even six [percent]”
From FoxNews:
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds: Down Again
From Kalshi, 7:45pm CT:
Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution of Mufan Chen (University of Wisconsin).
Trump’s Age of Uncertainty
As of yesterday:
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment and Coincident Index
NFP up, but household survey series down.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Record Low (since 1952)
Preliminary May results out:
One Day in Trump’s Iran War
Odds for Hormuz reopening by July 1 up and then down relative to 24 hours ago; Brent went down and then back up.
On MarketPlace: “Why this number might be more important than GDP”
Preliminary GDP rose 2% SAAR after 0.5% in Q4. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — aka “core GDP” — grew 2.5% vs. 1.8% previous. In general, since the pandemic, core GDP has been less volatile than GDP, which makes it a more useful metric than actual GDP these days. I discuss this issue on Marketplace today. [Updated version of post from Monday]