One of the enduring mysteries of the past two years is why measured economic sentiment remains so sour despite objectively good economic outcomes.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Q3 GDPNow at 5.9% (SAAR)
To see how dramatically this bean counting approach deviates from consensus, consider this graph:
Divisia M4 and the Price Level
Posit money includes everything in M1-M3 and Treasurys per John Hall (says use broad divisia aggregate). Estimate a regression of log GDP deflator divided by Divisia M4 and real GDP over the 1967-2019 period (Engle-Granger).
QCEW Release and 4 Measures of NFP Employment
Here’s a picture of employment, normalized to 2022M03.
If Child Labor Is OK, Why Not Poorhouses?
From WIZM:
Children ages 14 and 15 would no longer need a work permit or parental permission to get a job under a bill Republican Wisconsin lawmakers released last last week.
The proposal comes amid a wider push by mainly Republican state lawmakers to roll back child labor laws, despite the efforts of federal investigators to crack down on a surge in child labor violations nationally.
Walker’s Folly (as well as the WisGOP)
Divisia Money Measures: Resurrecting the Quantity Theory?
Reader Econned, in response to my posting of pictures of M2 divided by real GDP, and the GDP deflator, castigates me for the use of conventional monetary aggregates:
M2? This is a pitifully disingenuous post – those who see value in QTM use a divisia index as the monetary aggregate. And you know this.
The Return of the Economic Undead
One shows that they are economic fraudsters over and over, with discredited ideas, but they keep on coming back. From WaPo:
…his top economic advisers … to map out a trade-focused economic plan for his presidential bid…. including former senior White House officials Larry Kudlow and Brooke Rollins, as well as outside advisers Stephen Moore and former House speaker Newt Gingrich…
US GDP Deflator, Broad Money, and Velocity
Some pictures, for those who believe in the constant or trend velocity Quantity Theory for the US.
Defending the Ruble
Interest rate up. Presumably more intervention, and reconstituted capital controls — although it’s hard to tell. So, when you see the picture of the ruble rebound…