Join me at 7 p.m. CT on UW Alumni Association’s TheUWNow livestream (via YouTube), where I’ll be joined by Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson in discussing “The US Credit Rating and You” (moderated by Mike Knetter).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
A Rolling Recession from a Rolling Expansion?
I see increasing speculation ([1] , [2]) that we might avoid a recession by virtue of having rolling recessions. Usually, the argument is that the slowdowns are hitting different industries, although one could also take a geographical view. Here I discuss both the industry and geographical variation.
“First thing we do, let’s gag all the economists”: China Edition
Apologies (as always) to Shakespeare. From Sun Yu in the FT:
Douglas Irwin: “The Return of Industrial Policy”
From an Finance and Development (June) article, by Douglas Irwin (Dartmouth), author of Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2017), Free Trade under Fire (Princeton), and currently President of the Economic History Association.
Wisconsin’s Finest [expletive deleted below]
As a transplant to this state, I am always amazed at what I learn about the people who represent the residents of this state. From “‘Get The F— Out’: Wisconsin Congressman Curses Out High School Pages In Capitol…” (Forbes)
Guest Contribution: “How Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg). This post is based on the paper coauthored with Valérie Mignon (University of Paris Nanterre).
Measuring Currency Overvaluation in a World with No Intertemporal Trade
The Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Blue Collar Dollar Institute have developed a measure of currency misalignment, reported in their Currency Misalignment Monitor (August issue here). I thought it of interest to compare their estimates of currency overvaluation with those reported by the IMF in its External Sector Report (July). Here’s a chart for the currencies they focused in on in August.
Business Cycle Indicators, with New Employment Numbers
Continued, albeit slowing, employment growth yields the following picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (plus monthly GDP, and GDPNow).
Why I Think Private Employment Grew Through April (and Maybe Through July)
Private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment slightly undershot consensus (172K vs. 179K). There’s been some discussion of how it’s likely that private nonfarm payroll growth is overstated in the CES, possibly due to distortions associated with the firm birth/death model. Here, I compare the official series against some other measures that are not susceptible to this critique.
Is It Safe? Considering the End of the Recession Call
Apologies to Laurence Olivier in “Marathon Man”. Derek Thomson of the Atlantic describes “How the Recession Doomers Got the U.S. Economy so Wrong”. Personally, I don’t think we should take the recession scenario off the table, despite the recent spate of good data. First, term spread models implied a downturn/recession in the 4th quarter of 2023 (using a 50% threshold), and we’re still in the 3rd quarter. Second, these data are going to be revised — and GDP in particular will be heavily revised.