Nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the downside, while preceding months are revised down. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP (SPGMI).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Manufacturing Construction Boom and Nonresidential Investment
Deputy Asst Secretary Tara Sinclair and Asst Sec Van Nostrand and Special Asst Gupta discuss the ongoing boom in manufacturing construction. Here’s one graph:
Remembering History: Texas Power Generation Outages in the 2021 Crisis
Here is plotted some time series, from Busby et al. “Cascading risks: Understanding the 2021 winter blackout in Texas,” Energy Research & Social Science Volume 77, July 2021, 102106.
June Private NFP Nowcasted, based on ADP Series
ADP private nonfarm has a blowout upside surprise of +497K vs. consensus +228K. For context, the m/m standard deviation of log first differences is 0.0028, vs. June reading of 0.0039.
Using the correlation between log first differences for BLS nonfarm payroll employment and ADP, I get the following prediction or “nowcast” for the BLS number to be released tomorrow, taken literally, a 486K employment increase (ignoring revisions to previous months):
On the Reliability of Non-Renewables Energy Production: Texas, June 18, 2023
Of Technocrats and Ideologues in Economic Data/Analysis Dissemination
I’ve gotten jaded by getting regular emails alerting me to the fact a new Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast or Monthly Economic Update (the latest just out, here). In addition, DoR has substantially expanded its interactive data visualizations here. But after a little thought, I really have to say it’s been a sea change in openness since Governor Walker exited.
Two Quarters of Negative GDP Growth Do Not (Necessarily) a Recession Make, Part MMXXVI
From CEPR-EABCN’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (June 30 meeting), “Not Every Downturn Is a Recession”
Wisconsin GDP through ’23Q1
State level GDP figures for Wisconsin was released last week. Here’s a picture of that series, compared to the Evers Administration’s forecast, and a naive forecast based on US GDP and lagged WI GDP.
“Wind, solar help Texas meet record power demand during heat wave”
From Reuters:
June 30 (Reuters) – The Texas power grid comfortably met record demand during this week’s heat wave with abundant power supply from wind and solar plants, data from the grid operator showed.
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s End
With today’s spending and income release, we have this picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (consumption, income, sales), along with monthly GDP. Atlanta Fed has also released a new nowcast of GDP.