We live in an age where tons of data are easily available. It is highly unlikely that the US government is suppressing data, e.g., median hourly wage data, in an effort to provide an overly optimistic picture of the US economy. That’s an unlikely conspiracy.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Inflation in July: Central Tendency Down
Headline and core y/y CPI inflation undershoots slightly Bloomberg consensus (by 0.1%) (and below Cleveland Fed nowcast for headline of 0.4% m/m, see yesterday’s post). Overall, trend is down even if headline y/y is ticks up slightly.
Chinese Inflation in July
Year-on-year CPI inflation goes negative (-0.3% vs. -0.4% consensus), and month-on-month is positive.
CPI Inflation at Annual Rates, using July Nowcast
From Cleveland Fed; and compared to Bloomberg consensus.
Chinese Growth in Question (Again)
Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?
The Downgrade, the Debt Crisis and the Macro Outlook
Join me at 7 p.m. CT on UW Alumni Association’s TheUWNow livestream (via YouTube), where I’ll be joined by Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson in discussing “The US Credit Rating and You” (moderated by Mike Knetter).
A Rolling Recession from a Rolling Expansion?
I see increasing speculation ([1] , [2]) that we might avoid a recession by virtue of having rolling recessions. Usually, the argument is that the slowdowns are hitting different industries, although one could also take a geographical view. Here I discuss both the industry and geographical variation.
“First thing we do, let’s gag all the economists”: China Edition
Apologies (as always) to Shakespeare. From Sun Yu in the FT:
Douglas Irwin: “The Return of Industrial Policy”
From an Finance and Development (June) article, by Douglas Irwin (Dartmouth), author of Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2017), Free Trade under Fire (Princeton), and currently President of the Economic History Association.
Wisconsin’s Finest [expletive deleted below]
As a transplant to this state, I am always amazed at what I learn about the people who represent the residents of this state. From “‘Get The F— Out’: Wisconsin Congressman Curses Out High School Pages In Capitol…” (Forbes)