From Cleveland Fed; and compared to Bloomberg consensus.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Chinese Growth in Question (Again)
Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?
The Downgrade, the Debt Crisis and the Macro Outlook
Join me at 7 p.m. CT on UW Alumni Association’s TheUWNow livestream (via YouTube), where I’ll be joined by Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson in discussing “The US Credit Rating and You” (moderated by Mike Knetter).
A Rolling Recession from a Rolling Expansion?
I see increasing speculation ([1] , [2]) that we might avoid a recession by virtue of having rolling recessions. Usually, the argument is that the slowdowns are hitting different industries, although one could also take a geographical view. Here I discuss both the industry and geographical variation.
“First thing we do, let’s gag all the economists”: China Edition
Apologies (as always) to Shakespeare. From Sun Yu in the FT:
Douglas Irwin: “The Return of Industrial Policy”
From an Finance and Development (June) article, by Douglas Irwin (Dartmouth), author of Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2017), Free Trade under Fire (Princeton), and currently President of the Economic History Association.
Wisconsin’s Finest [expletive deleted below]
As a transplant to this state, I am always amazed at what I learn about the people who represent the residents of this state. From “‘Get The F— Out’: Wisconsin Congressman Curses Out High School Pages In Capitol…” (Forbes)
Guest Contribution: “How Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg). This post is based on the paper coauthored with Valérie Mignon (University of Paris Nanterre).
Measuring Currency Overvaluation in a World with No Intertemporal Trade
The Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Blue Collar Dollar Institute have developed a measure of currency misalignment, reported in their Currency Misalignment Monitor (August issue here). I thought it of interest to compare their estimates of currency overvaluation with those reported by the IMF in its External Sector Report (July). Here’s a chart for the currencies they focused in on in August.
Business Cycle Indicators, with New Employment Numbers
Continued, albeit slowing, employment growth yields the following picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (plus monthly GDP, and GDPNow).