Michigan 67.8 vs 66.7. Big jump in expectations 72.1 vs. 68.5 (as opposed to current situation).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Scariest Paragraph for Applied Econometricians in Project 2025
From Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025, page 664:
At It Again: “Donald Trump promises an ‘economic boom’ if he wins US election”
Russia GDP Slowdown in Q2: 4% y/y Growth
From BOFIT today (as translated by Google):
Naval Deployments as of 8/12/2024
From the US Naval Institute:
Kursk 2024 – Update 8/15/2024
From MilitaryLand.
Business Cycle Indicators – NBER and Alternative – Mid-July 2024
With the Fed’s industrial production release (-0.6% m/m vs. -0.3% consensus) and retail sales (+1.0% m/m vs. +0.4% consensus), we have the following pictures, the first of the indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Five Measures
With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series.
The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):
Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…
PPI Downside Surprise
Core PPI 0.0% m/m vs +0.2% consensus (+2.4% y/y vs. +2.7% consensus). Here’s a picture of instantaneous core measures.