Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. I thank Sohaib Nasim for research assistance and Emil Kaneti for catching a mistake in an earlier draft.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Quotes that Should be Remembered Forever
From March 2020:
February 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast
Released today. Continued growth in employment, GDP, based on national trends and outlook from SPGMI (report here).
Measuring Fed Inflation Credibility
What do households (not economists) think inflation will be in three years? I use the deviation of forecast from target as a proxy measure for credibility regarding inflation.
Why Is Wisconsin Construction Booming?
Residential or nonresidential?
Guest Contribution: “Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks: Some Nonlinear Evidence”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg) and William Ginn (LabCorp, Artificial Intelligence).
Conference Board Revises 2024 Outlook Up
…to 1% y/y [1]. Their Leading Economic Indicator edges up slightly [2]. Justin Ho discussed their brightening view on Friday’s Marketplace.
Wisconsin Employment in February: Continued Growth
Employment still outstripping the November Wisconsin DoR forecast, based on SPGMI national outlook.
Economic Report of the President, 2024
Released today, full text available here.
Are You Better Off Than You Were 4 Years Ago
Per capita GDP relative to 1st quarter of new administration: