The headline number for nonfarm payroll employment was decent [1], and although there are worrisome aspects, I think the key take-away is the fact that manufacturing employment is slowing much more than overall. To the extent that manufactured goods proxies for tradables, I think caution is in order with respect to monetary tightening. And yet, I read headlines reporting that the “Fed is on track to raise rates…”[Sparshott/RTE WSJ].
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks”
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France and University Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense) and Pierre Guérin (Bank of Canada). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Banque de France or of the Bank of Canada.
And for Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook …
Over the last three months, there has been a substantial downshift in the level of economic activity and six-month forecasted growth, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
Short Term Economic Prospects in Kansas, Updated
Expect further contraction
Short Term Economic Prospects in Kansas
Philadelphia Fed coincident indices for Kansas have been revised downward, along with forecasts.
“The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?”
This is the title of a newly released VoxEU ebook, edited by Bernard Hoekman.
The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.
Wisconsin Downturn?
In Down, Down, Down, I noted Wisconsin’s three month downward trend in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, and as I cautioned, even this level of employment would likely be further downward revised when the QCEW data were incorporated in the next benchmark. The household survey based data released by the BLS adds yet more confirmation of a decrease in employment (h/t GeoffT). Monday’s newly released Philadelphia Fed coincident indices reflect those labor market trends.
Using QCEW Data to Estimate NFP in Wisconsin
Wisconsin released Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data yesterday (as well as nonfarm payroll employment (NFP)) [1] [2]. We can use these data to update the estimate of nonfarm payroll employment (which is important given concerns about the accuracy of the establishment survey based series). Doing so worsens the employment performance through 2014.
Down, Down, Down
Wisconsin employment in May. (Update 6/23 to include growth decomposition)
“Answering the TPA Critics Head-On”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.