Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on November 26th.
Category Archives: exchange rates
Origins and Challenges of a Strong Dollar
That’s the title of an op-ed appearing in Nikkei newspaper (日本経済新聞):
JP Morgan Chase: “U.S.-China endgame involving 25 percent U.S. tariffs on all Chinese goods in 2019”
That’s according to Bloomberg.
Guest Contribution: “Trump Renews Charges of Chinese Currency Manipulation”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Manufacturing Employment and Output
Today’s employment situation release depicted a picture of continuing recovery in the labor market. One interesting aspect is what is happening to the tradables sector, which I proxy with the manufacturing sector. There, the advance data indicate a slight decline.
As the CNY Goes, East Asia Goes…Maybe
For whatever reasons — capital outflows, PBoC non-intervention — the yuan has depreciated substantially since the Trump administration has announced Section 301 actions against China. This has implications not just for the CNY/USD exchange rate, but also other East Asian currencies.
At Business Cycle Frequencies, Macro Dominates in Trade Flows
Just a reminder, the Chinese have an instrument we do not; the question is whether they dare use it:
VoxEU: “The new Fama Puzzle”
That’s a new article at the outstanding web portal VoxEU, coauthored by Matthieu Bussière, Menzie Chinn, Laurent Ferrara, and Jonas Heipertz, and based on this paper:
The ‘Fama puzzle’ is the finding that ex post depreciation and interest differentials are negatively correlated, contrary to what theory suggests. This column re-examines the puzzle for eight advanced country exchange rates against the US dollar, over the period up to February 2016. The rejection of the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity and rational expectations still occurs, but with much less frequency. In contrast to earlier findings, the Fama regression coefficient is positive and large in the period after the Global Crisis, but survey-based measures of exchange rate expectations reveal greater evidence in favour of uncovered interest parity.
Explaining the Soybean Selloff: Ag Conditions, the Dollar, or Tariff Fears?
Trade Deficit Rising!
Since 2017Q1. By Mr. Trump’s own metric, we’re losing. But it’s a stoopid metric for evaluating “unfair”-ness.