Even before the Thursday’s CPI release, forecasters had upped their short term rate forecasts, along with long term.
Category Archives: financial markets
Market Expectations and the CPI Release
Nominal and real yields rise, as do inflation breakevens, while yield curve flattens.
Bitcoin and Different Types of Uncertainty/Risk
What matters (as we ponder Russian actions in Ukraine (e.g., invasion). Will elevated geopolitical risk matter, and if so, how much?
Inflation Breakeven, TIPS and Term Spreads
Given the indications of tightening in the Fed’s statement today – both on rates and tapering – it’s surprising how little inflation breakeven moved. On the other hand, 5 year TIPS jumped 13 bps.
Bitcoin, VIX, and Expected Inflation
Bitcoin’s lost half its value since its recent peak. Could one explain this one’s students, quantitatively? First take a look at the the correlation with the most commonly discussed factor in the recent episode – risk.
Financial Market Indicators for Expected Inflation, Output
As of yesterday:
Inflation Breakeven, Term Spread, Risk and Uncertainty: A Snapshot
As we get additional news day by day, it’s useful to see what financial and other indicators have to say about the economic outlook.
So You Want to Be a Monetarist!
consider the velocity of M2…
Economists Are Remarkably Bad at Forecasting Short Term Interest Rates
I was looking at survey based forecast errors for short term interest rates, when I generated this graph. It’s certainly a humbling picture.
The Price of Bitcoin
Over seven and a half years ago, Jim remarked about Bitcoin:
Hard to know where this is all going to lead. But one thing is clear– we have added a very interesting new chapter in the history of money.