Little changed from July, at least from the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists:
Category Archives: financial markets
Guest Contribution: “Foreign official demand for US debt and US interest rates: Accounting for global common factors”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
Forty Years of Real Treasury Rates
Preparing graphs for my course, I generated this graph which shows the trend decline in real (risk free) rates. Is there any reason to believe in an imminent reversal of the trend?
Guest Contribution: “El Salvador exemplifies the surrealism of cryptocurrencies”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Market-Based Indicators of Inflation, Growth and Risk
Medium term inflation expectations are muted, growth expectations are recovering slightly, and perceived risk seems contained.
The Debt Ceiling As Kabuki
From Marketplace yesterday, “The debt ceiling explained” (Dylan Miettinen):
August CPI – Nowcasts
The CPI release for August numbers is tomorrow. As of today, here are the Cleveland Fed nowcasts for CPI and Core CPI:
Messages from the (Bond) Market
Today, the CEA published a blogpost on how the administration’s infrastructure and Build Back Better plans won’t be inflationary. I think it’s of interest to see how the market (which will undoubtedly turn out to be wrong) thinks inflation and output will evolve.
Forecaster Views on the Overheating Hypothesis
Earlier in the year, one fear was that excessive fiscal stimulus would push up inflation, push up long term yields. Professional forecasters don’t seem to view that outcome as imminent.
Market Inflation Expectations and Real Rates
Is the inflation scare bubble over?
As of yesterday, the five year inflation breakeven was 2.5%, down from 2.72% in mid-May. The estimated inflation risk and liquidity premia adjusted 5 year breakeven was 1.62% as of 7/30 (when the corresponding actual breakeven was 2.56%).