Bitcoin’s lost half its value since its recent peak. Could one explain this one’s students, quantitatively? First take a look at the the correlation with the most commonly discussed factor in the recent episode – risk.
Category Archives: financial markets
Financial Market Indicators for Expected Inflation, Output
As of yesterday:
Inflation Breakeven, Term Spread, Risk and Uncertainty: A Snapshot
As we get additional news day by day, it’s useful to see what financial and other indicators have to say about the economic outlook.
So You Want to Be a Monetarist!
consider the velocity of M2…
Economists Are Remarkably Bad at Forecasting Short Term Interest Rates
I was looking at survey based forecast errors for short term interest rates, when I generated this graph. It’s certainly a humbling picture.
The Price of Bitcoin
Over seven and a half years ago, Jim remarked about Bitcoin:
Hard to know where this is all going to lead. But one thing is clear– we have added a very interesting new chapter in the history of money.
Treasury Ten Year Yield Forecasts
Little changed from July, at least from the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists:
Guest Contribution: “Foreign official demand for US debt and US interest rates: Accounting for global common factors”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
Forty Years of Real Treasury Rates
Preparing graphs for my course, I generated this graph which shows the trend decline in real (risk free) rates. Is there any reason to believe in an imminent reversal of the trend?
Guest Contribution: “El Salvador exemplifies the surrealism of cryptocurrencies”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.