Long term real rates predicted, and r*.
Category Archives: financial markets
Guest Contribution: “The End of Zero Interest Rates”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
When Next You Have to Teach Mundell-Fleming
What is your answer to the question: How Close to Full Capital Mobility Are We?
Guest Contribution: Model update and disagreement among recession models
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
Treasury Yield Forecasts and Projections: CBO vs. Economists’ Consensus
CBO above market?
Term Spreads for Country Groupings
US, Rest-of-Advanced, Emerging Markets, follow up on individual countries’ term spreads in yesterday’s post.
Term Spread Inversion and Non-Inversions
The 10yr-3mo term spread is remarkably synchronized for some large advanced economies.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed is Back on the Curve”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Mortgage Spreads
Plain Vanilla Term Spread Recession Probabilities
Anxiety provoking graphs generated while prepping for lecture.