Answer: No.
Category Archives: inflation
“After tax mortgage rates are well below inflation—IOW negative real rates. A helluva deal!”
Contra this comment, the data suggests otherwise.
Guest Contribution: “Inflation in the euro area: A view from the price level”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Director of the International Institute of Forecasters).
Spreads, Breakevens, and Risk/Uncertainty as of End-March
Buffeted by SVB, income and spending, and PCE releases.
PCE Inflation for February
Month-on-month PCE inflation was 0.2% below consensus (core 0.1% below).
Swedish Inflation: Blame It on Biden!
The evidence is overwhelming. As Steven Kopits comments:
Yes, Powell and Yellen [are at fault for causing the inflation and resulting banking crisis]. Nothing new there.
And, yes, the US can export inflation. If a US fiscal impulse goes into a full employment (or upwardly constrained employment) economy, then the difference will show up in imports. We would expect to see a blow-out in the trade deficit and clogging of ports. Which we did. And we would expect that supply chains across the world would be under pressure with price increases across the globe. Which we did. So, yes, best I can tell, the US is able to export inflation.
Month-on-Month Core PPI at 0%
Undershoots consensus at 0.4%. M/M headline at -0.1 vs 0.3%.
Spreads and Uncertainty/Risk Measures Post-SVB, Post-CPI Release
Five year Treasury-TIPS breakeven rises. EPU up on 13th, VIX down (but still elevated) today. 10yr-3mo spread remains very negative.
Inflation Surprise Barely Moves Expected Fed Funds Path
M/M core CPI inflation surprised on the upside (0.5 ppts vs. 0.4 ppts Bloomberg consensus) while m/m headline at consensus. The path of the Fed funds as indicated by futures barely budged.
PCE Inflation – Headline, Core, Trimmed Month-on-Month and Instantaneous
Core PCE y/y 4.7% vs. 4.3% consensus, headline 5.4% vs. 5.0%.