The core figure exceeds consensus (y/y 5.4% vs. 4.9% Bloomberg).
Category Archives: inflation
January Inflation
Year-on-year headline and core inflation both down, but both slightly above consensus (with headline at 6.4% vs. 6.2% Bloomberg consensus). (Month-on-month both at consensus, given rounding). Other measures provide ambiguous signals.
Sentiment and Misery (and Maybe Partisanship)
The University of Michigan’s February consumer sentiment index (preliminary) is out today. Here’s the picture (series inverted so down is improvement) and the “misery index”, the sum of unemployment and y/y CPI inflation.
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Inflation – Services vs. Goods
In this Marketplace piece (with Justin Ho), one of the main points is the disjuncture between the evolution of consumption and inflation rate for services vs. all else. Here’re some pictures.
Instantaneous PCE Inflation and Competitors
Based upon the working paper by Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona), here’s the PCE inflation rate up to December:
Instantaneous Inflation
From a new working paper by Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona), h/t Torsten Slok:
A Graphic Exposition on Seasonality in Key Macro Indicators
Reader Bruce Hall argues that “With the exception of travel related and luxury related items, the monthly adjustments[to the CPI] tend to be relatively minor…”. I beg to differ.
Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Calculate 18 Month Not-Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates
Bruce Hall seems to think calculating 18 month inflation rates (either annualized or not) is just fine. It is just fine. As long as you don’t do it using not-seasonally-adjusted data. If you do that, you really should be clear. Illustrative example for CPI below.
Services Inflation – Some Data
CPI services, services ex-energy, core services ex-shelter, vs. core and core commodities.
“Inflation begins to slow, signaling lower costs for consumers”
My colleague Kenneth West did a long interview on inflation, interest rates, and recession, on Wisconsin Public Radio’s Central Time on Monday [audio]