Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jongrim Ha (Senior Economist), M. Ayhan Kose (Chief Economist and Director) and Franziska Ohnsorge (Manager) from the World Bank’s Prospects Group. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this blog are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
Category Archives: international
China Growth in Question
The FT article “China Covid outbreak linked to Delta variant weighs on economy” (Hale, White, Shepherd) makes some grim reading, with several other articles having a similar take, citing Goldman Sachs. I was gripped by a sense of déjà vu. In my first lecture in January 2020 I cited the uncertainties for the trade/macro outlook given events in Wuhan. From FT:
Messages from the 21Q2 GDP Advance Release: No Economy Is an Island
With apologies to John Donne.
Jim provided some key points in his Thursday post regarding the 21Q2 advance figures. Here are my additional takeaways: (1) the Administration’s forecast locked down in February looks prescient; (2) Final sales were higher than GDP, (3) exports have not buttressed growth, partly because of slow rest-of-world growth, (4) price growth is a rising share of nominal GDP growth.
Guest Contribution: “Economics of the Pandemic in Asia, 2020”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Calla Wiemer (President, American Committee on Asian Economic Studies).
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Manufactured Exports
Does Wisconsin’s fortunes — as a manufacturing heavy state — depend on what happens in the rest-of-the world? The answer is, partly, yes…
Guest Contribution: “Globalisation and the Efficiency-Equity Trade-off”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Roland Beck, Virginia di Nino and Livio Stracca (all at the European Central Bank). The views expressed belong to the authors and are not necessarily shared by the institutions to which the authors are affiliated.
Guest Contribution: “How Tariffs Affect China’s Exports”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Steel Tariffs and Iron/Steel Prices
The Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were a bad idea during the Trump administration. They’re still a bad idea.
Guest Contribution: “What Three Economists Taught Us About Currency Arrangements”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
“The Fed and the International Financial System”
Today, students in my Master’s level Public Affairs course in macroeconomics had the good fortune to receive a guest lecture from Steven Kamin, resident scholar at AEI, formerly Director of the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board (sponsored by UW’s International Division). In his lecture, he covered the centrality of the dollar in the global financial system, monetary “spillovers” of Fed policy to other economies with special reference to the pandemic response, the macro challenges posed by the most recent fiscal relief package, and implications for emerging market economies. The entire lecture is here.