Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Georgios Georgiadis (European Central Bank), Helena Le Mezo (European Central Bank) , Arnaud Mehl (European Central Bank), and Cédric Tille (Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies, Geneva). The views expressed in this column are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. They should not be reported as such.
Category Archives: international
Trilemma Indices Updated
The International Trilemma — sometimes called the Impossible Trinity — is the proposition that a country cannot pursue simultaneously full capital mobility, full exchange rate stability, and full monetary autonomy.
“Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?”
Some do; some don’t. Revised paper by me, Hiro Ito, and Robert McCauley. From the abstract:
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index, Updated to 2019
We first constructed the index nearly 20 years ago! See the website for the data.
Guest Contribution: “The G20 agenda in the pandemic’s year 2”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Guest Contribution: “Inflation Prospects: A Difficult Transition for Policymakers”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jongrim Ha (Senior Economist), M. Ayhan Kose (Chief Economist and Director) and Franziska Ohnsorge (Manager) from the World Bank’s Prospects Group. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this blog are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
China Growth in Question
The FT article “China Covid outbreak linked to Delta variant weighs on economy” (Hale, White, Shepherd) makes some grim reading, with several other articles having a similar take, citing Goldman Sachs. I was gripped by a sense of déjà vu. In my first lecture in January 2020 I cited the uncertainties for the trade/macro outlook given events in Wuhan. From FT:
Messages from the 21Q2 GDP Advance Release: No Economy Is an Island
With apologies to John Donne.
Jim provided some key points in his Thursday post regarding the 21Q2 advance figures. Here are my additional takeaways: (1) the Administration’s forecast locked down in February looks prescient; (2) Final sales were higher than GDP, (3) exports have not buttressed growth, partly because of slow rest-of-world growth, (4) price growth is a rising share of nominal GDP growth.
Guest Contribution: “Economics of the Pandemic in Asia, 2020”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Calla Wiemer (President, American Committee on Asian Economic Studies).
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Manufactured Exports
Does Wisconsin’s fortunes — as a manufacturing heavy state — depend on what happens in the rest-of-the world? The answer is, partly, yes…