The FT-Booth Macroeconomist Survey was released today. GDP is slated to grow 2.1% in 2024, q4/q4.
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March 2024
Industrial production near consensus, while manufacturing surprises on upside (+0.8% vs. +0.3% m/m). Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP (formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS-Markit).
“Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say”
That’s the title of an article by S. Ganguly for Reuters.
Nearly two-thirds of strategists in a March 6-12 Reuters poll of bond market experts, 22 of 34, said the yield curve’s predictive power is not what it once was.
Alternative Measures of NFP
Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark indicates NFP employment is on lower trajectory than indicated by the CES measure, by about 600 thousands. How does this change the picture?
The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators for February
January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside, at +275 vs. +198 thousands consensus. With combined downward revisions in the prior two months totaling 168 thousand, the level of employment is just about consistent with implied consensus. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Business Cycle Indicators Plus Monthly GDP. And Heavy Truck Sales
Monthly GDP declines 7.1 ppts m/m annualized Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
Business Cycle Indicators, end-February 2024
Personal spending comes in at consensus, personal income above. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
The UK in Recession? Expected or Unexpected?
With two quarters of GDP decline in the UK according to the current vintage of data, it’s reasonable to ask if the UK is in recession. ONS discusses the limitations of using the two-quarter rule of thumb here. Figure 2 of this study illustrates the dangers of relying upon the two-quarter rule when the GDP data are subject to revision. See additional discussion using the “technical” definition, AP, CNN, Bloomberg. It’s also of interest to consider whether statistical methods relying on financial indicators would have predicted a recession, variously defined.
Fed funds vs. Spreads in Recession Prediction
Reader Bruce Hall notes the correlation between Fed funds rate peaks and recessions, as a counterpoint to my use of spread inversions.
Other Metrics for Evaluating Recession Onset and the “Technical Recession” of 2022H1
Or, Why We Don’t Use GDP Alone to Determine Business Cycle Dates. First, consider our various measures of output.